🏀 First Four Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Predictions (March 18)

Today's two First Four games kicked off March Madness well, and the anticipation only builds with two more play-in games on the eve of the first day of the NCAA Tournament. As always, tonight's two games tip from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio at 6:40 p.m. and 9:15 p.m., respectively, airing on truTV.

My First Four picks as part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 First Four picks & best bets: March Madness (March 18)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.9 units

💰 Best First Four bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Dontae Horne Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-135)

Lehigh excels at running teams off the 3-point line, as its 32.2% 3-point attempt rate allowed ranks 12th. It allowed even fewer in non-conference games, as Patriot League opponents jacked threes up at a 35.3% rate against the Mountain Hawks.

Prairie View A&M will likely cater to that defensive game plan, as the Panthers attempt 3’s at a bottom-25 rate, and get just 24% of their points from beyond the arc.

Dontae Horne is shooting just 31.2% from beyond the arc, and has stayed under this projected total in four of the last seven games.

🔥 More First Four picks

Prairie View A&M +3.5 (-110)

I love Prairie View A&M’s roster makeup, as it added length to improve from dead-last in 2-point percentage defense in SWAC play to second (and top-80 nationally) this season.

Prairie View A&M’s late-season turnaround happened after starting 4-8 in conference and losing the league’s fourth-highest scorer at the time (Tai’Reon Joseph) to injury for six games. That allowed it a chance to swap more defensive-minded players in the starting lineup, and the Panthers went 9-1, with metrics like the team owning a plus-10.1 better defensive rating when center Corey Dunning is on the court versus off.

The Panthers also set up well to lower Lehigh’s Nasir Whitlock’s scoring ceiling, as the guard has 24.5 points per game over the last six. They rank seventh-best in defensive efficiency in isolation, so Whitlock cannot rely on one-on-one play for his points as much.

Jaron Pierre Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds (+125)

SMU small forward Jaron Pierre Jr. is an excellent rebounder despite only standing 6-foot-5. This is his third collegiate year where he is on pace for a defensive rebounding rate or 13.7% or better, dating back to his time with Southern Miss and Jacksonville State. 

Pierre Jr. added a career-best 2.7% offensive rebounding rate this season, and that raises his ceiling for rebounds against a Miami (OH) team that ranks outside the top-70 on the defensive glass. But the biggest reason for this optimistic plus-money play is that the RedHawks eschew offensive rebounds for transition defense, ranking in the bottom-35 in offensive rebounding rate.

🚀 Best First Four parlay picks

Only two legs of this parlay affect each other, as I am banking on Prairie View A&M to attack the rim more and not settle for 3-pointers (which Lehigh may not give it anyway) to earn a cover as underdogs. But I'm adding to the value of this parlay with another plus-money player prop despite it not cashing in two of the last eight games.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting the First Four: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

After backing a player prop at -135 odds (57.45% implied probability), I wanted to balance out my portfolio for Wednesday's First Four games with a plus-money player prop that could provide a nice surge to my bankroll.

With my Prairie View A&M spread play, I am backing the trend that it owns the nation's longest ATS cover streak at 11 games, which began on Feb. 14.