Top College Basketball Expert Picks for Thursday: Tight Conference Games Expected

We're approaching the end of the college basketball regular season, with conference tournaments just around the corner. Read on for our college basketball expert picks.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Thursday’s college basketball games (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday's College Basketball Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Game Picks

College Basketball Expert ATS Predictions

Utah Valley -2 (-110 via DraftKings)

Despite having a 12-3 record in Western Athletic Conference play with two of those losses coming to the first-place New Mexico State, Seattle is a betting underdog on the road tonight against Utah Valley. Oddly enough, the Wolverines are not one of the teams nipping at Seattle’s heels for the 2-seed. Yet, UVU does come in with a slightly higher overall ranking (No. 118) according to KenPom compared to Seattle U (No. 122).

Considering that the Redhawks won the first matchup between the teams this season by six points on Jan. 12, it may seem like an over adjustment to have Utah Valley favored by two. Indeed, the betting market has already come in on Seattle, which opened as a three-point underdog. In addition to home court, there are two key personnel factors to note.

First and foremost, the undersized Seattle U frontcourt does not have anyone capable of containing WAC Player of the Year candidate, Fardaws Aimaq. The Wolverines’ center is averaging a double-double on the season with 19.7 points and 13.7 rebounds. 

The second key piece to consider is that Utah Valley was without its second-leading scorer for the first meeting between these teams. Justin Harmon has since returned from a broken hand that sidelined him for over a month. He led all Wolverines with 23 points on Feb. 19. - John

Murray State -3 (-110 via FanDuel)

Belmont sits at 14-2 in the Ohio Valley Conference, and 24-5 overall. However, the Bruins still trail Murray State by two full games, as the Racers are a perfect 16-0 in the OVC. 

The Racers rank as the top team in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play. They also hold their OVC opponents to just 32.4% from beyond the arc, a critical skill against the explosive Bruins offense. Belmont generates over 33% of their points from 3-pointers, with four players carrying 96 or more attempts from deep this season. 

On Jan. 15, the Racers crushed the Bruins 82-60.  This is senior night for Murray State, with the ability to win the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title outright. The Racers relentless rebounding, superior defense, and huge home-court advantage should be enough to get by the Bruins tonight. 

83% of the tickets and 85% of the money is backing Murray State tonight, meaning the public and sharps are aligned on this critical OVC matchup. - Randle

Oregon +3 (-110 via DraftKings)

Oregon has struggled of late, losing three of its last four, and desperately needs a big win to bolster their NCAA tournament resume. They own a road win over UCLA from Jan. 13 and just missed out on a golden opportunity for another massive win in their last game at Arizona. However, the Ducks can build off the positives from that three-point loss, and we like this rematch against the Bruins to come down to the wire again.

UCLA got back leading-scorer Johnny Juzang and Cody Riley in their last game after a one-game absence, though the duo combined for just 13 points in their 14-point win against Arizona State. While players like Jaylen Clark and Jules Bernard have stepped up in big ways lately for the Bruins, UCLA’s offense is limited without point guard Tyger Campbell running the show. Campbell has missed two straight games with a shoulder injury, and the Bruins have averaged 71 points in those contests. However, both of those games were played at home, and we expect UCLA’s less experienced guards to struggle on the road in what should be a raucous environment in Eugene.

Oregon has won consecutive home games against UCLA by a combined 29 points. We would not be surprised to see this game come down to the final possession. - Spector

College Basketball Expert O/U Picks

Santa Clara-Pepperdine Over 154.5 (-110 via Caesars)

Tonight will be the first and only regular-season meeting between Santa Clara and Pepperdine. While the Broncos are actually clinging to the fringes of at-large consideration for the NCAA Tournament, the Waves have one all of one West Coast Conference game to date. When various stats from both teams are paired together, playing the Over the total in tonight’s matchup is appealing.

Pepperdine is arguably the key to this total handicap. The Waves have been particularly awful on the defensive end of the floor all season long. KenPom has Pepperdine ranked 256th in adjusted defensive efficiency. At the same time, Lorenzo Romar’s squad ranks 51st in adjusted tempo. 

In a similar light, Santa Clara comes in with multiple statistics that favor scoring and offense. The Broncos claim a KenPom defensive efficiency ranking of No. 133 and rank 33rd in adjusted tempo. They're also the 34th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom.

Bettors should shop around when betting this WCC matchup Over. While the consensus line has settled in at 155, one full point above the opening number, Caesars is one of a handful of sportsbooks still offering 154.5. - John

BYU-Loyola Marymount Under 143 (-110 via FanDuel)

BYU is known for its explosive offense, but it is the Cougars defense that has been guiding them to recent victories. After a rough four-game losing streak, BYU has actually hit the Under on their game total in three of their last five contests. In a surprising trend to the casual fan, the Cougars have played to the Under in seven of their ten home games this season. The Cougars are great at limiting their opponent's second chances and strong at defending the arc. BYU has held opponents to just 30.4% from three the arc this season.

On Feb.10, BYU escaped with a one-point victory at Loyola Marymount in overtime, hitting 152 total points in regulation. The second matchup between conference foes tends to trend Under, which is why this line is set below the 150 total. The Lions want to play slow, ranking second-slowest in adjusted tempo in WCC play per KenPom. BYU has also slowed its pace in WCC play, ranking fourth-slowest among the 10 teams. Five of the Cougars last seven opponents in Provo, UT have totaled 71 points or fewer. I think Loyola Marymount is well below that number tonight and will back the under between familiar WCC foes. - Randle

Belmont-Murray State Over 144 (-110 via DraftKings)

Belmont and Murray State is the most likely matchup in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament championship. However, the Racers may not need a victory to earn their NCAA Tournament bid, as their resume is mighty impressive to this point. With a much more highly anticipated matchup likely looming in March, we would not expect this regular-season meeting to be played with the same defensive intensity or attention to detail.

In all four instances where these new conference rivals have met multiple times in the regular season, the highest-scoring matchup of the season was always the initial meeting. Add in the fact that the Racers and Bruins rank No. 1 and No. 2 in nearly every offensive category in league play, including adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), and this game has all the makings of a shootout. - Spector

Where to Bet on College Basketball Expert Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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