🏀 Dayton vs. VCU Prediction: Atlantic 10 Championship Odds & Picks (March 15)

After No. 4 seed Dayton knocked off top-seeded Saint Louis in a thriller yesterday, it set up a somewhat surprising Atlantic 10 Championship between the Flyers and No. 2 seed VCU. Tipoff from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). VCU is a 3.5-point betting favorite after sweeping the two regular-season meetings. 

My Dayton vs. VCU prediction recognizes that the Flyers' only two losses since a four-game losing streak in late January are to VCU (they are 9-2 in that stretch), but I expect a tight third meeting with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line, with Dayton limiting one of VCU's leading scorers.

Brackets will be set today, it's finally Selection Sunday. But conference tournaments will still have a say in some automatic bids, and we're covering all of the day's action with our college basketball conference tournament guide.  

🏀 Dayton vs. VCU picks & odds: Atlantic 10 Championship (March 15)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.71 units

💰 Dayton vs. VCU prediction & best bet

Dayton +3.5 (-110)

Dayton’s two losses to VCU have been by a combined 32 points, but the Flyers showed much better at home in the six-point loss in the regular-season finale.

The Flyers utilized their zone pressure which morphs into an amoeba 1-3-1 very well in the rematch, with the biggest difference being that they kept VCU off the offensive glass. The Rams had an 11% lower offensive rebounding rate in the second meeting.

I’m also selling high on VCU after cruising by 13 yesterday, as Saint Joseph’s deploys way more drop coverage defensively (which the Rams pummel) than does Dayton.

Score prediction: VCU 68 - Dayton 67

🔥 Best Dayton vs. VCU player prop bet

Jadrian Tracey Under 9.5 points (-112)

Jadrian Tracey is one of three Rams players averaging in double figures (10.1 points per game). But I am expecting Dayton to hold him to single digits again, just like it did when it stymied him for six points in the rematch after he went off for a game-high 26 points in the first meeting.

Including yesterday’s win where they limited a potent Saint Louis offense to 69 points, the Flyers are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and have held opponents under 1.1 points per possession in all nine wins. They nearly made it six wins in that span keeping opponents under one point per possession after the Billikens averaged 1.01 yesterday. 

Dayton has elite length at the wing spots, and I expect that versatility to limit Tracey’s shot attempts, after he ranked ninth in percentage of his team’s shots taken in conference play.

🚀 Dayton vs. VCU same-game parlay

Though I am missing out on the best point spread number by a half-point, bet365 is my go-to sports book for this same-game parlay, as it offered the most extensive player prop catalogue and the best number on the total. This is an extensively pro-Dayton SGP, riding its top-25 adjusted defensive efficiency (and the Atlantic 10's best) since the start of February.

💡 How I'm betting Dayton vs. VCU

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Dayton is not only one of the best defensive teams in the country since the start of February, but its offense has been relentlessly attacking with a top-4 free throw rate nationally in that span.

The Flyers also have nearly as many Wins Above the Bubble (WAB) as VCU in that stretch (plus-1.4 compared to plus-1.9), so I am comfortable throwing out what happened in the two regular-season meetings and backing all three of my plays above with one unit.

📊 Live Dayton vs. VCU odds: Atlantic 10 Championship

The point spread has bounced all over the place across our best sports betting sites, especially at bet365, as sharps and the public seem split. There have been countless fluctuations between -2.5 and -3.5, and with the amount of buyback at each number, the game should tip with a point spread in that range.

Given that Dayton is one of the most profitable teams to the Under in the country (11-22 O/U record), it wasn’t surprising to see the total plummet initially from an opening number of 141.5 to as low as 139.5. But there must have been some respected buyback on the Over for it to tick back up to 140.5, even with 56% of the wagers supporting the Over.

📈 Dayton vs. VCU betting trends

📺 How to watch Dayton vs. VCU: Atlantic 10 Championship

• Date: Sunday, March 15
• Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+