College Basketball Best Bets for Thursday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Thursday’s college basketball action gets underway early, with three games tipping off as early as 2 p.m. ET. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our college basketball best bets for Thursday.
The appealing early-season tournaments continue today, highlighted by four Charleston Classic games and the Myrtle Beach Invitational. In addition, the Big Ten and Big East continue to battle for conference supremacy in another Gavitt Tip-Off Games matchup between Nebraska and St. John’s.
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s college basketball slate (odds via PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday’s College Basketball Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Murray State (+575) vs. Texas A&M (-800)
- South Carolina State vs. Kentucky (No Moneyline, -38)
- UL Monroe (+900) vs. TCU (-2000)
- UC Riverside (+900) vs. Creighton (-2000)
- Utah Tech vs. Arizona (OFF)
Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets
- Moneyline: South Carolina (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Colorado State ★★★
- Spread: Charleston -3.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Davidson ★★★★
- Total: UC Riverside-Creighton Over 139 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
- Upset: Furman (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Penn State ★★★★★
- Prop Pick: UMass Team Total Under (OFF) ★★★★
Top College Basketball Picks for Thursday
Moneyline: South Carolina (-110) ★★★
The South Carolina Gamecocks will enjoy a bit of a homecourt advantage in this opening-round game, with the tournament being played in Charleston. The post-Frank Martin era is off to a good start, as Lamont Paris brought his solid defensive principles from Chattanooga.
The Gamecocks seemingly struggled with South Carolina State’s zone defense on opening night but still used their athleticism to attack enough to warrant 32 free-throw attempts. South Carolina followed that up with an impressive win over Clemson, despite getting just three points in 31 minutes from Meechie Johnson.
South Carolina’s undersized frontcourt may have issues defending bigger and more physical teams in SEC play. Still, a matchup with Colorado State is perfect for them, considering the Rams rank 354th with a 13.4% offensive-rebounding percentage.
Spread: Charleston -3.5 (-110) ★★★★
Keeping with the theme of liking teams with more fan support in early-season tournaments, this is a true home game for Charleston as it welcomes A-10 member Davidson.
Unfortunately, the Wildcats have not shot it as well as the McKillop family’s teams are typically accustomed to. Their 33.3% 3-point percentage (ranks 155th) is a far cry from their 38.5% from last year, which was good for fourth-best in the nation. Spacing and the threat of being lethal from deep are essential to Matt McKillop’s complex offense. Still, so far, Davidson has not shown it will be able to take advantage of Charleston’s defensive weaknesses (ranks 324th in effective field goal percentage).
Charleston is a battle-tested team that had a lead on No. 1-ranked North Carolina after 20 minutes and is coming off a win against another A-10 team in Richmond. Thus, we expect the Cougars to play well on their home court and to take advantage of a Davidson team that is still a work in progress offensively.
Total: UC Riverside-Creighton Over 139 (-110) ★★★★
Creighton is the favorite to win the Big East this year because of their efficient and high-powered offense. The Bluejays have been sensational on that end, ranking in the top 40 in the country in scoring at 87.3 ppg.
Of course, those numbers are unsustainable once we get into conference play, but they should not waver against a UC Riverside team that ranks 280th in effective field goal percentage defense and has allowed opponents to connect on 42.5% (327th) of their 3-point attempts. Creighton has been even worse on that end, allowing a 46.3% 3-point percentage, which gives us confidence about the Highlanders’ ability to score in this matchup.
Upset: Furman (+125) ★★★★★
Furman passed its first true test with flying colors, a 15-point drubbing of Belmont. The SoCon favorites ranked in the top 25 nationally last year in terms of efficiency - per ShotQuality - in half-court offense, namely ball screens, finishing at the rim, shot selection, spacing, and open 3-point rate.
The Paladins are on pace for even better offensive numbers this year, ranking fifth in effective field goal percentage and eighth in 2-point percentage (65.9%). Penn State matches up well being a guard-oriented team, but the Nittany Lions forced just five turnovers in their only real test against Butler thus far, suggesting the Paladins will have their way offensively.
Prop Pick: UMass Team Total Under (OFF) ★★★★
Frank Martin’s teams have never been known to light it up offensively, and his newly inherited Minutemen already seem like a work in progress on that end of the court.
UMass only produced 41 points at halftime against a poor Central Connecticut State team in its opener and did not get into a groove offensively until it had success in transition. Its next opponent, Towson, had a perfect scouting report and held it to 34.5% shooting in a game that was turned into a battle of executing in the half-court.
While Colorado plays at a top-20 tempo, the Buffaloes also rank 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency and should limit the Minutemen offensively on a neutral court.
Where to Bet on College Basketball
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
College basketball best bets from 11/17/2022 at 6:25 a.m. ET.
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