🏀 College Basketball Predictions Today: Healthy Illinois to Stomp Badgers

All conference tournament games on Friday's slate are in the quarterfinal or later, and there are plenty of ranked vs. ranked games to whet bettors' appetites.

My college basketball predictions today include my top ATS play from one of those matchups between two AP top 25 teams, as a Big Ten team looks to avenge a regular-season loss. I also have player props on two centers from power conferences, including unanimous Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor.

Stay atop all today's action with Rob Paul's college basketball conference tournament guide.

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.48 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Wisconsin vs. Illinois prediction: Illinois -7.5 (-114) 

Illinois blew a 12-point second half lead in a loss to Wisconsin, but played without Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic, two of its three players averaging 13.3 points per game.

From the end of November leading up to that game, Wisconsin wasn’t a top-50 defense, and was then torched for 1.23 points per possession by undermanned Illinois. 

With the Fighting Illini healthy, I expect their D-I best adjusted offensive efficiency to exploit a Badgers defense that just allowed 1.24 PPP to Washington, who ranked 16th or worse in league play in 3-point percentage and free throw rate.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

UMass vs. Toledo prediction: UMass +3.5 (-105) 

UMass erased an 11-point lead to knock Miami (OH) from the ranks of the unbeatens yesterday, and all but assured the MAC getting two teams into the NCAA Tournament.

The importance of coaching magnifies in March, and there are few coaches in mid-major conferences I trust more than Frank Martin. His Minutemen beat Toledo by two points at home on Jan. 20, and all of a sudden a six-game losing streak in February seems like a distant memory.

Perhaps we shouldn’t have been too low on UMass entering the MAC Tournament, as three of those six losses during the losing streak were in overtime. The Minutemen made more threes and won the turnover and rebounding battle against the Rockets in the first matchup, and shot three fewer free throws despite the game being one between the best and worst defense in terms of free throw rate allowed.

Malachi Moreno Over 5.5 rebounds (-135) vs. Florida

Kentucky’s 7-foot center Malachi Moreno totaled nine fouls in the two regular season games against Florida, but that didn’t impact his production on the backboards. 

Moreno surpassed this projected total in both games against the Gators with 11 and six rebounds, respectively. Though he has just seven total rebounds through two SEC Tournament games, those are his only two games with fewer than six rebounds in the last nine.

Despite losing by nine and allowing 92 points in the loss in Gainesville, Kentucky held Florida right around its season average for offensive rebounds. Given that Moreno ranks eighth in defensive rebounding rate in SEC play, it should not take many offensive boards for him to go over this projected total.

Zuby Ejiofor Over 15.5 points (-110) vs. Seton Hall

Zuby Ejiofor brings his best in Big East Tournament games. Since a four-point dud in a quarterfinal win over Butler last year, Ejiofor has averaged 24.7 points per game in conference tournament action.

He has now scored in double digits in 26 games this season, and has 21-plus points in three straight. In his 21-point effort in the regular season finale against Seton Hall, he was an efficient 8-for-11 on 2-point shots despite being held to fewer than two offensive rebounds for the first time in 17 games.

Ejiofor gets to the free-throw line at the second-highest rate and owns the fourth-highest offensive rating in league play, while the Pirates rank outside the top 90 in effective field goal percentage defense since the first meeting. 

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

With my four-star play on the Illinois point spread, I'm backing the trend that it has covered 60% of its games as favorites this year. In addition, UMass has covered eight of its 12 games as underdogs this season, a 66.7% cover rate.

From a player prop perspective, I would not put anyone off the contrarian play of the Over 7.5 on Zuby Ejiofor's rebounds, given that he only had six total rebounds in two regular season games against Seton Hall.

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four wagers above, I'm adding a play on Tennessee's moneyline odds against Vanderbilt as a fifth leg for this parlay.

Vanderbilt beat Tennessee 86-82 on the road just six days ago, but the Volunteers were missing Nate Ament, their second-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Ament had 27 points and eight rebounds in yesterday's comeback win over Auburn, and the Commodores rank 97th and 61st in 2-point and 3-point defense, respectively, over a 3-3 stretch to finish the regular season.

Adding Tennessee to this parlay brings the odds from +1052 to a more enticing +2100.