🏀 College Basketball Predictions Today: Points at a Premium in Buffalo vs. Akron

More than half of the AP top 25 is in action on Thursday, as several ranked teams get set to play their first tournament games, mostly in power conferences.

My college basketball predictions today start with an O/U and ATS play from the MAC and CUSA Tournaments in games that are the third meetings between the squads. I also add player props on one of the best shooters in the country (Emanuel Sharp) and one of the best passers (Silas Demary Jr.). 

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.92 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Buffalo vs. Akron prediction: Under 160.5 (-110) 

Buffalo and Akron combined for 184 points in a 14-point Zips win on Feb. 24. But that game featured 62 combined free-hrow attempts, which isn’t sustainable for two offenses that rank seventh and dead-last in MAC play in free-throw rate. 

I expect this game to play out more like the first meeting that saw 145 points scored, when Buffalo held Akron to 0.90 points per possession.

I don’t expect much urgency from the Zips today, who need to win three games in three days. And the cavernous Rocket Arena in Cleveland should impact their ninth-best 3-point shooting percentage.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

Kennesaw State vs. Western Kentucky prediction: Western Kentucky -1.5 (-110) 

This is sure to be a contrarian play, as Kennesaw State swept the regular season series with two wins by a combined 19 points.

Kennesaw State typically has an advantage in playing to its lightning fast top-20 tempo. But the Hilltoppers also push the pace at the 62nd-fastest tempo, largely because of their depth. Western Kentucky ranks first in CUSA and 14th nationally with 32.4 bench points per game, and it's topped 40 bench points five times.

If this is a game played with a tight whistle, the advantage goes to the Hilltoppers because of that depth, and because they rank ninth nationally with 19.4 makes on 25.6 free-throw attempts per game. 

Despite being amid a two-game losing streak, Western Kentucky is still 6-2 in its last eight. It's been top three in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover rate in that span.

Emanuel Sharp Over 2.5 3-pointers (-105) vs. Houston

Kelvin Sampson is one of the only Division I coaches with players who have played in a national championship game, and I expect him to lean on those veterans heavily in postseason play. 

Emanuel Sharp’s 37.6% 3-point percentage is on pace to be the second-highest of his career. 

Shot volume is not an issue for Sharp, as he takes 25.6% of Houston’s shots in conference play (13th-highest in the Big 12), with 59.6% of his field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. He's made at least three 3-pointers in four of the last eight games, while making 40% of his long-range attempts in three of the previous six.

Sharp should go Over this projected total against a tired BYU defense that has played two games in the last two days, and one that allows the second-highest 3-point percentage in Big 12 play (37.9%).

Silas Demary Jr. Over 8.5 assists (+115) vs. Xavier

UConn point guard Silas Demary Jr. ranks 11th in D-I with a 38.7% assist rate, which increases to 40.9% in league play to lead all Big East players.

Demary has finished with eight-plus assists in five of the last seven games, and he's totaled 15 assists in the two regular-season wins against Xavier. 

It would help cash the Over if this game was closer than those other two, as the Huskies beat the Musketeers by 32 and 23 points. But Demary still finished with a gaudy assist total in those games despite playing an average of 22.5 minutes, and a tighter contest in this third meeting makes these plus-money odds (46.51% implied probability) a steal.

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

With my five-star play on the MAC total between Buffalo and Akron, I'm backing the trend that the Under is 4-11-1 in the Zips' 16 road and neutral site games, as opposed to the Over cashing in 10 of their 13 home games.

From a player prop perspective, I'm also going to sprinkle as much as a half unit on Sharp's alternate 3-point total of +240 for four-plus made 3-pointers.

However, I will not be doing the same for Demary's assists, even though bet365 is offering +185 odds for him to finish with 10-plus. I'm worried head coach Danny Hurley will play the long game and limit Demary's minutes knowing the team will need to win three games in three days.

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four wagers above, I'm adding a play on Miami (OH)'s moneyline odds against UMass as a fifth leg for this parlay.

The undefeated RedHawks have been playing with fire lately, entering the conference tournament with three consecutive victories by two points. While that's likely a big reason they aren't even the pre-MAC Tournament favorites (that honor goes to Akron at -115, 53.49% implied odds), they should still be no match for the Minutemen, who lost six of their final seven regular-season games.

Adding Miami (OH) to this parlay brings the odds from +1355 to a more enticing +1771.