🏀 Best March Madness Upset Picks Today: Second Round Underdog Plays for Sunday (March 22)

After the favorites cleaned up through the first three days of March Madness, Sunday’s second-round slate is once again chalk-heavy. But there’s still value on the underdog side, headlined by a Virginia moneyline upset and two double-digit dogs worth taking the points with.

Here are the best March Madness upset picks for Sunday. See all of our March Madness predictions for every game this weekend.

🔥 Best March Madness upset picks today: Underdogs to win outright

No. 3 Virginia ML (+100) over No. 6 Tennessee (6:10 p.m. ET, TNT) ⭐⭐⭐

While Virginia is seeded higher than Tennessee, the Cavaliers are underdogs in this matchup - and our college basketball expert Mike Spector is backing them on the moneyline against Rick Barnes' Volunteers in this second-round clash.

“Tennessee is being overvalued in this matchup after it dismantled previous one-loss Miami 78-56, while averaging 1.19 points per possession. The fact is the Volunteers defense was always going to show up, as they allowed just 0.91 points per possession to teams ranked outside the top 40. Virginia poses other issues, but most glaring is how well it is set up to defend Tennessee inside. The Volunteers rank in the 89th-percentile in post-ups and the 86th percentile in efficiency, but the Cavaliers’ elite rim protection ranks fifth in 2-point percentage allowed.”

➡️ Full preview: Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction & parlay

📊 Best March Madness ATS underdog picks today

No. 9 Iowa +10.5 (−110) vs. No. 1 Florida (7:10 p.m. ET, TBS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our college basketball expert Phil Wood is targeting Iowa with his biggest play today: a two-unit bet on Iowa’s pace-killing style to keep Florida under double digits.

“Iowa could realistically pull this upset for two reasons. First, Iowa ranks fifth-slowest in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, which will limit Florida’s possessions. Second, Iowa has the 26th-best shooting percentage in the country, averaging 48.8% from the floor. Iowa has lost by single digits to Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan this season, while also totally instilling its will in a 57-52 win over Nebraska. Additionally, while Iowa allows opponents to shoot 33.7% from 3-point range (182nd), the Gators are shooting just 31.2% from deep, which ranks 322nd nationally.”

➡️ Full preview: Iowa vs. Florida prediction & parlay

No. 7 UCLA +4.5 (−115) vs. No. 2 UConn (8:45 p.m. ET, TNT) ⭐⭐⭐

Spector backs the Bruins’ elite pick-and-roll offense to mirror the Providence blueprint that shredded UConn twice this season, though the play is contingent on Tyler Bilodeau’s availability.

“UCLA’s offense and how it utilizes pick-and-roll with standout point guard Donovan Dent is structured very similarly to an inferior Big East opponent in Providence that shredded the Huskies defense for 1.12 and 1.19 points per possession this season. The Bruins offense entered the tournament playing at a top-10 level over the last month. For as many eye-popping tournament trends Dan Hurley has, UCLA had a solid 60% cover rate against ranked opponents this season.”

➡️ Full preview: UCLA vs. UConn prediction & parlay

🏀 More March Madness predictions today

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.