🏀 Best March Madness Upset Picks Today: Second Round Underdog Plays for Saturday (March 21)

Louisville is the only team our analysts are picking to win outright as a moneyline underdog on Saturday, but there’s no shortage of points worth taking in the Round of 32. Here are the best March Madness upset picks for Saturday’s second-round slate. See all of our March Madness predictions for every game this weekend.

🔥 Best March Madness upset picks today: underdogs to win outright

Louisville ML (+165) over No. 3 Michigan State (2:45 p.m. ET, CBS) ⭐⭐⭐

Our college basketball expert Shane Thurston backs the No. 6 Cardinals as the outright winner, calling the market’s reaction to Mikel Brown’s absence an overreaction.

"Hand up, I’m someone who bet South Florida +5.5 (shoutout that backdoor cover) on Thursday. But that had more to do with my belief in the Bulls than anything else. And March Madness betting is about adapting when there is value, such as in this game. KenPom projects Michigan State to win by two, suggesting the market is overrating the impact of Louisville being without Brown. According to Will Warren of Basket Under Review, Louisville actually has a better net rating with Brown off the floor this year."

➡️ Full preview: Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction & parlay

📊 Best March Madness ATS underdog picks today

Texas A&M +11 (−110) vs. No. 2 Houston (6:10 p.m. ET, TNT) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our coillege basketball expert Mike Spector offers his top play of the entire Saturday slate: a two-unit bet backed by how well the Aggies’ style mirrors the Saint Mary’s team they just handled.

"This five-star play is backed by the confidence of how well this matchup mirrors a Saint Mary’s team that Texas A&M just easily handled. Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Aggies had only played two games with under 65 possessions. But they certainly didn’t mind Thursday’s 63-50 slugfest, and they improved to 17-2 when forcing a turnover rate of at least 16%. Houston ranks 351st in adjusted tempo (Saint Mary’s was 310th)."

➡️ Full preview: Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction & parlay

Texas +6.5 (−110) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (7:10 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Spector rides the Longhorns’ momentum from two straight underdog wins, noting Gonzaga’s tricky prep and Texas’ elite free-throw rate.

"Gonzaga has a difficult prep for a much different opponent than Kennesaw State was, as the Owls confused the Bulldogs with a myriad of junk zone looks. But it is also concerning that the Owls attempted 26 free throws, while Texas averages the third-highest free throw rate in the country."

➡️ Full preview: Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction & parlay

High Point +11.5 (−114) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (9:45 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Spector sees parallels between Arkansas and Thursday’s opponent Wisconsin, giving the Cinderella Panthers another live cover.

"High Point had great preparation for Arkansas by playing Wisconsin, as the two teams similarly run offense through their standout backcourt duos. The most impressive thing about Thursday’s win was that Wisconsin was previously 21-2 when shooting at least 33.3% from beyond the arc, and the Badgers shot 39.1%."

➡️ Full preview: High Point vs. Arkansas prediction & parlay

VCU +11.5 (−110) vs. No. 3 Illinois (7:50 p.m. ET, CBS) ⭐⭐⭐

Thurston likes the value on VCU after the market overreacted to the Rams’ overtime comeback, noting their 17-1 run since mid-January.

"My initial instinct was to fade VCU after a huge comeback in an overtime win against North Carolina on Thursday. But the market was all over that, which has created some value in the Rams. After all, these players are in the best shape of their lives playing for a spot in the Sweet 16."

➡️ Full preview: VCU vs. Illinois prediction & parlay

Nebraska +2.5 (−110) vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (8:45 p.m. ET, TNT) ⭐⭐⭐

Spector backs the Cornhuskers’ elite ball-screen defense and expects the Oklahoma City crowd to provide a home-court edge.

"If Vanderbilt thinks it will free up its standout backcourt duo of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles with a steady diet of ball screens, it should think again. Nebraska ranks in the 7th percentile in ball screens allowed with a 99th percentile efficiency rating, so the Commodores will have to win the majority of one-on-one matchups. Nebraska is also 23-0 when keeping opponents under a 32% offensive rebounding rate, and Vanderbilt averages a 29.9% offensive rebounding rate in SEC play."

➡️ Full preview: Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska prediction & parlay

Saint Louis +12.5 (−102) vs. No. 1 Michigan (12:10 p.m. ET, CBS) ⭐⭐

Thurston predicts an 11-point Michigan win - just inside the number - crediting the Billikens’ complex offense for keeping it competitive.

"I’ve been high on Saint Louis all season because of its complex system on offense, but now it runs into a Michigan defense that I think is good enough to win a national title. According to the BBall Index, the Billikens rank in the 96th percentile in half-court offense and the 97th percentile in man offense. Michigan rates in the 96th percentile in half-court defense and man defense."

➡️ Full preview: Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction & parlay

🏀 More March Madness predictions today (Saturday, March 21)