Arizona vs. UConn Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 19

A pair of AP top-4 undefeated teams face their biggest early-season tests as I make my Arizona vs. UConn prediction for tonight's showdown from Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Conn., at 7 p.m. ET (FS1).

No. 3 UConn and No. 4 Arizona are each coming off big wins against ranked opponents, but oddsmakers installed the Huskies as a 5.5-point betting favorite at their home on-campus arena. I expect that atmosphere to make all the difference in this huge non-conference matchup that should also turn into a defensive struggle.

✅ Arizona vs. UConn prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Arizona vs. UConn preview & score prediction

With Friday’s 69-65 win over UCLA, Arizona improved its record to 23-13 against AP-ranked opponents under Tommy Lloyd. That is the third-highest winning percentage in D-I (min. three games), though five of those wins have come against ranked UCLA teams. 

But UConn gets my backing in this matchup after having won eight straight top-10 matchups, while going 9-1 in such games under head coach Dan Hurley.

UConn’s offensive firepower

In Saturday’s top-7 matchup against BYU, the Huskies had three players score more than 20 points. That made them just the third UConn trio to accomplish that against a ranked opponent, and the first to do so against a top-10 opponent in the last 30 seasons.

UConn’s offense ranks sixth in adjusted efficiency and has averaged 93 points per game in its last three wins. Before an 86-point and 1.16 points per possession outburst against BYU, the Huskies had ranked in the 93rd percentile while averaging 1.7 points per possession on off-ball screens.

Hurley’s offense is so complex and difficult to scout, which is why the Huskies are 16-5 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of the 2023 season. They have also covered the spread in 66.7% of their non-conference games in that span (22-11-1 ATS).

The best number and price for UConn backers is at Caesars, the only of our best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds at -5.5 (the Huskies are as high as -6.5 elsewhere). If UConn covers the spread, my $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.

Score prediction: UConn 81, Arizona 73

🆚 Arizona vs. UConn matchup to watch

Alex Karaban vs. Arizona’s perimeter defense

UConn had a preseason No. 5 ranking and was one of four schools with four “elite shooters”, as classified by Evan Miyakawa’s database with four players (excluding freshmen) who ranked in the 90th percentile or better in projected 3-point percentage.

One of those players was Alex Karaban, who is shooting an unbelievably efficient 63.2% (12-of-19) from beyond the arc this year. 

Arizona has done a solid job of running teams off the 3-point line, with the 62nd-lowest percentage of opponents’ field goal attempts from 3-point range. But Karaban had an 11-game stretch at the end of last season (including Big East and NCAA Tournament games) in which he made multiple 3-pointers.

In a game where Karaban will move up UConn’s all-time scoring list (he enters with 1,426 career points, tied with Emeka Okafor for 23rd all-time), I am banking on much of his production coming from beyond the arc. 

I would play the Over on Karaban’s 3-pointers up to 3.5 if I were getting a plus-money return when those player props become available. In the meantime, I am taking a flier on Karaban firing up the crowd and scoring the first point of the game.

If you're looking for some more player props tonight, head over to my college basketball best bets tonight.

Best prop bet: Alex Karaban to score the first point (+500 via DraftKings)

📊 Arizona vs. UConn odds

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📺 How to watch Arizona vs. UConn

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Gampel Pavilion (Storrs, Conn.)
• TV: FS1