Alabama vs. Illinois Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 19

It’s safe to expect fireworks when No. 8 Illinois (4-0) faces No. 11 Alabama (2-1), but my Alabama vs. Illinois prediction actually believes the Under offers some value.

The total for Wednesday’s showdown is trading as high as 182.5. The Fighting Illini are 3.5-point favorites ahead of tipoff at 9 p.m. ET in the United Center in Chicago on FS1.

✅ Alabama vs. Illinois prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Alabama vs. Illinois preview & score prediction

Any argument against offense in this game will be difficult to make. Both teams want to play fast and shoot a bunch of 3-pointers. But there is enough variance in that formula that I like the Under at 182.5, winning $9.09 on a $10 bet.

Should the Crimson Tide shoot fewers 3s?

Since Nate Oats took over the program in 2020, Alabama has had a distinct formula of playing fast and firing a heavy dose of 3-pointers. The Crimson Tide have ranked in the top 35 in 3-point rate for the last six years.

Alabama is 21st in 3-point rate this season, but its only hitting 33.3% of such attempts from long range. The Crimson Tide are 166th in 3-point shooting, which comes after they were top 100 in back-to-back seasons.

Alternatively, Alabama is 18th in the country with a 2-point percentage of 63%. Illinois ranks 34th in that same metric, shooting 61.2% on 2-pointers.

Basically, I think there is a chance both teams lean into what has worked best when the game gets close down the stretch. Evan Miya’s analytical website is projecting the two teams to combine for 173.2 points in about 75 possessions tonight.

There is more margin for error on the Under in Wednesday’s battle.

Score prediction: Illinois 89, Alabama 86

🆚 Alabama vs. Illinois matchup to watch

David Mirkovic vs. Alabama’s rebounding issues

Illinois freshman forward David Mirkovic has exceeded expectations through four games. He ranks fifth in the nation with an average of 12.5 rebounds per contest, clearing this prop in three of his four outings.

There is a chance that center Tomislav Ivisic returns on Wednesday. He hasn’t played since the season opener. However, Mirkovic collected 14 boards while playing alongside him, so I’m not as concerned about his production on the glass.

I’m more interested in fading Alabama’s rebounding. The Crimson Tide rank 246th in offensive rebound rate and 146th in defensive rebound rate. It could be another big night for Mirkovic as a rebounder.

Best prop bet: David Mirkovic Over 10.5 rebounds (-125 via BetMGM)

📊 Alabama vs. Illinois odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Illinois

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19
• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: United Center (Chicago, IL)
• TV: FS1