Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction: Game 7 Odds & Expert Picks

Golden State took its foot off the gas, and now the Warriors have to travel to Houston to take on the Rockets for Game 7.

Shane Jackson

Last updated: May 3, 2025 1:27 PM EDT • 3 min read

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction: Game 7 Odds & Expert Picks, May 4 — Pictured: Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson stands next to Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. Photo by Cary Edmondson via Imagn Images.

Despite being down 3-1 a few days ago, Houston has forced a Game 7 against Golden State at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) on Sunday at Toyota Center, but our Warriors vs. Rockets prediction question whether it was all for naught.

A team hasn’t come back from down 3-1 in a series since the Denver Nuggets did it twice in the bubble in 2020. Prior to that, the Cleveland Cavaliers were the last team to do it, accomplishing the feat against the Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals.

Houston is a 2.5-point betting favorite to join elusive company, but our NBA picks will back the experienced road team in this scenario.

💰 Warriors vs. Rockets expert picks for Game 7

🔎 Our NEW NBA player prop odds tool can help you find the best NBA odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Against the spread pick: Warriors +3 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Warriors ML (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 203.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

🏀 Game 7 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Warriors 99, Rockets 97

From a rooting perspective, it’s difficult not to back the Rockets. While many of the players have changed, they were eliminated by the Warriors four times from 2015 to 2019. Houston fans deserve revenge in what should be an incredible environment in Game 7.

While home teams have historically had the edge in these situations, that hasn’t happened recently.

Since the bubble, the road team has won eight of the past 12 Games 7s, including when the Minnesota Timberwolves erased a 20-point deficit against the Denver Nuggets in last year’s playoffs.

But there is a reason why 3-1 deficits have proven difficult to overcome. It takes so much energy to win three consecutive playoff games.

I expect the moment to be too big for a young Rockets team, whereas the Warriors have the postseason experience to win a do-or-die Game 7. After all, they have won their last two road Game 7s.

✅ Best bet: Warriors ML (+120 via BetMGM)

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📈 Warriors vs. Rockets odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Game 7 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Warriors +2.5 (-105) | Rockets -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Warriors +120 | Rockets -143
Over/Under: Over 201.5 (-110) | Under 201.5 (-110)

🚑 Warriors vs. Rockets injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Warriors vs. Rockets live (Game 7)

📅 Sunday, May 4
🕗 8:30 p.m. ET
📍 Toyota Center (Houston)
📺 TNT | 🛜 Max

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Written By:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.