Warriors, Magic Picks, Predictions: Can Golden State Bounce Back Against Orlando?
Despite their rocky start to the season, the 3-5 Golden State Warriors are unsurprisingly the 9-point favorites against the rebuilding 1-7 Orlando Magic. Check out our Warriors-Magic picks.
The Warriors are fresh off a championship, and they retained their core while surrounding newest All-Star Andrew Wiggins. The bench was also revamped, with Jordan Poole leading the way while seemingly taking another step offensively. They're getting consistent minutes from James Wiseman and new defensive-minded acquisition JaMychal Green, whose 10 steals rank just one short of Wiggins, Poole, and Curry.
However, the Warriors are still just 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread, a bottom-three cover rate in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic are losing often, despite adding No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero. He's lived up to the lofty expectations so far, but injuries and a tough schedule have led to a 1-7 start, and the Magic are just 2-5-1 against the spread. Their only win so far was a home beatdown of the injured and defense-averse Charlotte Hornets.
Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s Warriors-Magic game (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Warriors vs. Magic Game Info
Date: Thursday, Nov. 3, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Local
Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL
Warriors vs. Magic Odds
Warriors vs. Magic Odds Analysis
The Warriors opened up as 7.5-point favorites, but the public has been moving the line. Currently, 86% of the bets are backing the defending champions on the moneyline, along with 62% of the bets against the spread, according to The Action Network. The Warriors are now the 9-point favorites, a number they've covered twice over their three wins. Golden State is 3-1 at home but 0-4 on the road despite being favored in each contest.
Meanwhile, the Magic have covered this 9-point number in three of their losses while pushing once. They have yet to suffer a loss greater than 13 points, and both of their covers have come at home. The Magic are one of just two squads currently undefeated ATS at home in 2022.
The public has also been moving the total for this game. With 67% of the bets coming in on the Over, the line has moved from 225 to 226. That number has been cleared just once during the Magic's games this campaign. However, the Warriors' contests have surpassed that total seven times.
Warriors vs. Magic Picks
Warriors vs. Magic ATS Pick
Magic +9.5 (-110) ★★
The Magic are bruised and battered, with Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac, and Moritz Wagner already ruled out, and Terrence Ross listed as a game-time decision due to a knee injury. However, they’ve been without most of those players all season, and have still only recorded only three double-digit losses.
The Warriors are mostly healthy and will only be without their veteran bench weapon Andre Iguodala and new shooting-heavy acquisition Donte DiVincenzo. Still, they’ve only recorded two double-digit victories. The first such win was against the Lakers on opening night. Los Angeles shot an unwatchable 25% from distance while turning the ball over 21 times, which the Magic have only done once.
The other such win for the Warriors was against the Heat. Miami was on the second leg of a back-to-back set on their opposite coast, and the Warriors outrebounded them 50-31.
The Magic possess the tools to combat the Warriors’ ability to run away with the game in two ways.
They rank middle-of-the-pack in defensive rating (111.6), and among the top 12 in defensive rebounding rate, thanks to their sizable lineups surrounding Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, and now Bol Bol, all of whom are at least six-foot-10. Kevon Looney, Wiseman, and Green shouldn't kill them on the glass.
While the Magic don’t trot out well-respected defensive specialists to contain Stephen Curry, they've still been effective defensively on the perimeter. Their 33.8% 3-point shooting allowed ranks 11th-lowest in the NBA. Unsurprisingly, 37% of the Warriors' points this season have come from distance, the league's sixth-highest mark. The Magic's length could lead to rough nights from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson, who are inconsistent jump-shooters.
Expect the Magic to keep this matchup competitive, even though they don’t have anywhere near the Warriors’ experience closing games out.
Warriors vs. Magic O/U Pick
Under 226.5 (-107) ★★
Let's fade the public action again.
The Magic can keep this game close. And if that happens, the contest likely won’t be a shootout since the Magic's short rotation and their own issues shooting from deep would prevent them from keeping up with the Warriors.
Both teams have enjoyed a day of rest, and the Under is 17-14 since the beginning of 2021-22 when the Warriors are on the road and favored. That's a top-10 hit rate.
Warriors vs. Magic Prop Pick
Klay Thompson 2-plus assists and Warriors ML (-125) ★★★★
Klay Thompson's journey over the last few years has been an inspirational one. But he hasn't been the same reliable jump-shooting weapon in 2022-23. Now the Magic's lengthy defenders and inexperienced players when trying to close out abruptly should lead to fewer easy open looks from three, and more opportunities to put the ball on the floor.
That’s why only one team is allowing more assists per game to shooting guards this season than the Magic. Thompson has recorded at least two assists during six of his seven games this season, including one when he only played 19 minutes due to an ejection.
Even though the Magic should keep this game close, they don't boast any trustworthy weapons to close this game. The Warriors' well-oiled machine has no business losing to Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. It’s good value to take the moneyline (-400 as a straight) and combine it with Thompson’s prop for a near-pick-’em price.
You’re currently getting the best price on this as a two-leg same-game parlay through DraftKings. Thompson going Over 2.5 assists at plus-money (the current best price is +126 through FanDuel) is also worth considering. That's cashed during four of his six non-ejection games this season.
Where to Bet on Warriors-Magic Picks
Warriors-Magic picks made 11/5/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
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