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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Denver Finish Off Opening-Round Series Win?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: April 25, 2023 4:51 PM EDT • 3 min 23 sec read.

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets puts up a shot as we look at our best Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets puts up a shot against Luka Garza of the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images via AFP.

The Denver Nuggets are looking to complete the gentleman's sweep at home in Tuesday's Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Read on for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.

Thanks to a 34-point performance from Anthony Edwards, the Minnesota Timberwolves secured an overtime win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday to force a Game 5. Now the Nuggets, who have a 3-1 series lead, hope to finish the job back at home in Game 5.

With Denver favored by double-digits and expected to close this series out, we prefer to attack the player prop market in this game. And we are prepared to bet against Edwards, who has been the best player in this series. Allow me to explain.

Here is our best Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction

Anthony Edwards Under 33.5 points + assists (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Betting against a superstar in the playoffs never feels right. Just ask anyone who bet the Under on Jimmy Butler's points prop on Monday before he exploded for 56 points in a Game 4 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.

It is going to take a monster performance from Edwards for the Timberwolves to push this series to Game 6, and I'm willing to bet against it with this inflated line. Edwards cleared this combo mark by scoring 34-plus points in three straight games, which is why oddsmakers have bumped this total up a touch too high.

NumberFire projects Edwards to finish with 22.6 points and 4.5 assists in this game, which would give us plenty of breathing room on the Under for this combo prop. Prior to Edwards topping this total in three straight games, he had failed to reach this number in four consecutive outings. That stretch included Game 1 against Denver when he scored 18 points and recorded five assists.

For the season, Edwards averaged 29.2 points and assists. He cleared this number in 38 of 85 games and 13 times in his last 30 contests, according to props.cash.

The Nuggets don't want to tempt fate by allowing this series to head back to Minnesota, so look for them to do everything they can to slow down Edwards. With a win in Game 5, Denver will move to the next round where a potential matchup with the Phoenix Suns awaits.

In two of the last three Minnesota-Denver matchups, we have bet on Edwards to record Over 2.5 steals and blocks. Both such bets cashed and that's always worth going back to, but we are choosing to bet against his offensive impact in a game that could end up being a blowout.

Our Jon Metler is also backing the Under on a couple of Edwards' props in his best NBA parlays today and his NBA best bets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets best odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 33.5Under 33.5Under 33.5Under 33.5Under 33.5
-120-115-120-125-115

All of our best sports betting sites have set this line of points and assists at 33.5 for Edwards, who has seemed unstoppable during this series. We placed this bet at FanDuel due to the same-game parlay options at that shop, but PointsBet also offers a -115 price on the Under.

While we like the edge on this Under, fading a 21-year-old superstar is not for the faint-hearted. This is playable at anything -130 or better before we'd recommend looking elsewhere in the NBA player props market.

You would have to pay more juice, but betting on Edwards to provide a defensive impact is never a bad strategy. The Over on his combo line of 2.5 steals and blocks is priced at -148 at Caesars. For comparison, the Over was priced between +110 and -108 when we bet it earlier in the series.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Nuggets opened as 9-point favorites, but the line is now up to -10 at our best NBA betting sites. The total has dropped down to 220.5 after opening at 221.5 earlier in the week at the best sportsbooks.

The winner of each of the first four games of the series covered the spread, including when the Nuggets covered as 8-point favorites in the first two outings.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets game info

  • Date: Tuesday, April 25, 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO.

Timberwolves-Nuggets pick made 04/25/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.