Spurs vs. Kings Picks, Predictions: Poeltl Holds the Fort for Visitors
We have a short NBA slate with only three West Coast games on the menu, and we’re targeting bets in the game with the least injury uncertainty as of Thursday morning. Check out our San Antonio Spurs-Sacramento Kings NBA picks.
The 6-9 Spurs are learning about life without former All-Stars on their roster. They’ve experienced a recent skid, losing seven of their last eight games, including back-to-back losses to begin their current road trip.
The Spurs visit a Kings team that started off 0-4 but is matching competition ever since. The Kings won their last four games, including a 32-point blowout of the Brooklyn Nets in their most recent game.
Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Spurs and Kings (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Nets vs. Trail Blazers picks.
Spurs vs. Kings Game Info
Date: Thursday, Nov. 17, 10 p.m. ET
TV: BSSW, NBCS-CA
Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Spurs vs. Kings Odds
Spurs vs. Kings Odds Analysis
Injuries and load management have been rampant in the NBA once again and are affecting every game on Thursday's slate; however, this is the contest with the most availabilities locked in.
The game line opened as a 7.5-point spread in favor of the Kings; since then, 72% of the public bets have come in on the Kings to cover. However, the line has moved half a point in favor of the Spurs, probably because 90% of the money is on the Spurs to cover—an alert at the books reacting to the sharp money.
As for the total, we have some wildly fishy line movement. This game carries the highest total of Thursday's three games. It opened at 237.5, and 59% of the public tickets account for 85% of the money on the Over. Yet, the line hasn’t moved.
Spurs vs. Kings Picks
Spurs vs. Kings ATS Pick
Spurs +7.5 (-115) ★★★
As mentioned above, the sharp money is on the Spurs on Thursday and we’re going to ride with them. Both teams have been great against the spread this season, with the Spurs at 9-6 and the Kings at 10-3 ATS.
While the Kings have been led by elite offensive play from De’Aaron Fox and hot shooting from Kevin Huerter this season, the premium matchup of this game is the battle of the bigs: Jakob Poeltl vs. Domantas Sabonis. In their head-to-head meeting last season, Sabonis was bodied, scoring just 12 points on 5-for-8 from the field and fouling out. Poeltl scored 16 points on 8-for-14 from the field.
The Kings are all about ball movement, ranking first in the NBA in pass rate (44.3%) but the Spurs combat that by ranking 13th in deflections per game (15.1) and eighth in defensive loose ball recovery rate (53.7%). On offense, the Spurs have the athletes and the coaching to attack the weaknesses of the Kings, who are the second-worst team by opponent field goal percentage.
Since last season, the Spurs are 23-16-1 against the spread as road underdogs. They have a chance to win this one outright.
Spurs vs. Kings O/U Pick
Over 237.5 (-107) ★★
Despite the frozen line on this total, we will lean on the Over for all the aforementioned reasons. The Spurs have not been good near the basket this season, allowing the second-most points per game in the paint. Now they face an offensive team centered around Fox and Sabonis, who get most of their shots off in the paint.
Couple that with the Spurs likely shooting better from 3-point range after hitting at a sub-32.0% success rate in each of their last two games, and you have yourself upward trends for some offense. Since last season, Spurs games are 26-23-0 on the Over, and Kings games are 30-22-1 on the over when they have equal rest as their opponents.
Spurs vs. Kings Prop Pick
Poeltl Over 13.5 points (+100) ★★★★
Poeltl is coming off a season-high 31 points and 14 rebounds in his last game on Tuesday. While I don't think he can replicate that explosion with more attention on him, this line is still too low. The addition of Sabonis to the Kings' roster hasn't done much to help them guard big bodies near the basket; they rank in the bottom eight of the league as a defense in field goals per game allowed in the paint and in the restricted area.
Poeltl has gone over this line in eight of his fifteen games this season and eight of his twelve games in which he played at least 27 minutes. Since we like the Spurs to cover the spread, Poeltl should stay in for four quarters to keep it competitive. He scored 16 points in his one meeting against a Kings team with Sabonis starting and I expect him to get it done again with even more offensive touches designed for him.
Where to Bet on Spurs vs. Kings Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for NBA betting sites:
Spurs-Kings picks from 11/17/2022 at 12:11 p.m. ET.
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