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NBA Player Props, Predictions for Wednesday: Paul, Russell, and Poole

Jon Metler

Last Updated: February 1, 2023 1:17 PM EST • 2 min 30 sec read.

Chris Paul of the Phoenix Suns high fives fans after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.
Chris Paul of the Phoenix Suns high fives fans after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

It'll be all on Chris Paul to lead the Phoenix Suns once again, and we intend to take full advantage of that. Check out Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler's favorite NBA player props for Wednesday's games using the best NBA odds. 

Do I have to write anything here, or can I just upload a picture of D'Angelo Russell? (IYKYK.)

Charlotte Hornets v Minnesota Timberwolves

Here are our best NBA player props for Wednesday (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA Same Game Parlay picks for Wednesday, as well as our NBA Best Bets!

NBA player props for Wednesday

  • D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Warriors (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Chris Paul Over 10.5 assists vs. Hawks (+114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jordan Poole Over 3.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (-128 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!

NBA player props

D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Warriors (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Russell is looking a lot like Thanos these days: all roads lead back to him. The thing is, Russell has mostly won or lost this prop by half an assist in nine straight games. His price and total have remained relatively stable, and he continues to show value, so we'll continue to bet on him. 

Russell is projected for 7.3 assists Wednesday, which is over the total of 6.5, but we're getting a plus price once again. Russell should trade at -140 based on this projection. 

I'm a big numbers guy, but let's not ignore the human emotion that is also at play here. The Golden State Warriors traded Russell to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Russell's bet has a positive expected value of 29%, earning it a four-star rating. While there are a bunch of plus prices out there, the highest as of this writing is +120 at BetMGM. 

Chris Paul Over 10.5 assists vs. Hawks (+114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As Devin Booker is not yet ready to return from injury, all the pressure will be on Paul once again to generate offense for the Phoenix Suns. And he has proven capable in recent days, having exceeded this total in three of the Suns' last five games. 

Paul is projected to have just over 11 assists on Wednesday, so this total should be trading at -130 instead of +114. 

I'm going to play the Over 10.5 assists, even though some sportsbooks have this prop trading at 9.5 with increased juice on the Over. PointsBet, for example, has a -140 price for the Over 9.5.

If the juice drops to -125 or lower, either the 10.5 or 9.5 bet would have about the same expected value. Based on our price of -130, this wager has a positive expected value of 21%, earning it a four-star rating. 

Jordan Poole Over 3.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (-128 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Poole makes his debut in the assists article Wednesday – as does Caesars, if I'm not mistaken. Poole is showing value in multiple markets, but his assists prop offers the strongest edge. 

Poole is projected for 4.8 assists against the Timberwolves, which is significantly higher than his total of 3.5; we only need four to win, and this projection is pushing five. We can price Poole at -225 for Over 3.5 assists based on this projection. 

Taking our price of -225 into account, this bet on Poole has a positive expected value of 23%, giving it a rating of four stars. Caesars (-128) offers the best price for Poole, followed by DraftKings (-130). 

NBA player prop picks made 2/1/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.