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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

When the New York Knicks face the Houston Rockets on Monday, will they be able to stop their three-game losing streak? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Monday's schedule using the best NBA odds.

Having placed futures bets on the Knicks winning more than 43.5 games and capturing the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, I'm already rooting for them to win as many games as possible. 

Since I'm laying the points with the Knicks against the Rockets on Monday, just an outright win won't make me happy. 

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

  • Dallas Mavericks (-1) vs. Indiana Pacers
  • Milwaukee Bucks (-15.5) vs. Detroit Pistons
  • Houston Rockets vs. New York Knicks (-12.5)
  • Phoenix Suns (-7) vs. Utah Jazz
  • Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets (-5)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings (-5.5)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (-9) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
  • Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5)

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Monday’s NBA best bets

  • Spread: Pistons +15.5 vs. Bucks (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Knicks -12.5 vs. Rockets (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Julius Randle Over 8.5 rebounds vs. Rockets (+115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Khris Middleton Over 18.5 points vs. Pistons (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Monday's NBA player prop picks

Julius Randle Over 8.5 rebounds vs. Rockets (+115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Randle hasn't rebounded the ball at the rate he did before Mitchell Robinson returned from injury, but I believe the odds have overadjusted, giving us the opportunity to back him. 

Randle is projected to grab 9.1 rebounds on Monday, so we can price the total of Over 8.5 rebounds at -115. This prop shouldn't be trading at a plus price based on our projection, and it's showing an expected value of 14%.

With a price of +115, DraftKings and PointsBet have the best price, while FanDuel is just a little bit shorter at +112. 

NBA game picks

Spread: Pistons +15.5 vs. Bucks (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Detroit Pistons may be tanking while the Milwaukee Bucks are the top team in the Eastern Conference, but that doesn't mean we can't look deeper into the numbers and find some value in the Pistons. 

Against the Pistons, the Bucks should be closer to 11-point favorites, but BetMGM has them at -15.5. There's a 4.5-point difference between our projection and BetMGM, so the -110 price point on Pistons +15.5 is actually worth -169 to us. 

Though there's no doubt that the Bucks are the better team, this spread should be adjusted toward the Pistons. There are already signs of it at BetRivers, where the Pistons are 14.5-point underdogs. 

Spread: Knicks -12.5 vs. Rockets (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Knicks are on a three-game losing streak, but our projections say they'll get back on track on Monday against the Rockets. To avoid playing the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the playoffs, the Knicks need to keep their foot on the gas. 

This spread should be trading closer to Knicks -15 than Knicks -12.5. In other words, we can price the Knicks winning by more than 12.5 points at -139, but we can purchase it at -110 via BetMGM. 

Betting on the Knicks -12.5 has an expected value of 11% based on our projections. I fully expect this spread to move throughout the day and at tip-off it should be closer to Knicks -13.5 or Knicks -14. 

Player prop: Khris Middleton Over 18.5 points vs. Pistons (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Pistons-Bucks game has something going on, and I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo is sitting out, which will also help our Pistons spread pick. There was a time when the Bucks were 17.5-point favorites, but they’re now only -16.

Using the movement in the spread to my advantage, I will attempt to jump Khris Middleton's points prop, which will move drastically once Antetokounmpo is ruled out. Middleton has already moved from an opening line of Over 17.5 (-115) to Over 18.5 (-120), which indicates that Antetokounmpo is sitting out, or perhaps Jrue Holiday is not playing.

Both FanDuel and PointsBet have already adjusted their total on Middleton to 19.5, so don't hesitate to place this wager. There’s a lot of movement in the market on Middleton, and you’ll miss the opportunity to bet on him.

NBA best bets made 3/27/2023 at 5:30 a.m. ET.

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