🏀 Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Props Tonight: NBA Bets for Gilgeous-Alexander's Return
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns tonight after missing nine games with an abdominal strain. The Oklahoma City Thunder are an 8-point betting favorite over the Denver Nuggets tonight, with tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
My Nuggets vs. Thunder player props tonight feature the top NBA picks and best bets for this matchup, including value plays on Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.
🏀 Best Nuggets vs. Thunder player props tonight: NBA picks for Feb. 27
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets | Under 9.5 assists (-104) | 1.56u -> 1.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Thunder | Under 28.5 points (-111) | 1.11u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.67 units | Max profit: 2 units
💰 Best Nuggets vs. Thunder prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 assists (-104)
Jokic just hasn’t had success as a distributor against this Thunder defense. He has gone under this number in 10 straight meetings with Oklahoma City.
Additionally, this bet hasn’t been profitable coming out of the All-Star break. Jokic has cashed this prop just once in four games during that span and is coming off a six-assist performance against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. DraftKings offers Jokic Under 9.5 assists at -104, but I would still play this at the best NBA betting sites up to -130.
💸 More Nikola Jokic picks tonight!
Our senior analyst, Dustin Saracini, backs Jokic to make two or more 3-pointers with his NBA player props tonight.
🔥 More Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite in our NBA MVP odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-111)
Gilgeous-Alexander returns tonight, but there’s no guarantee he’ll immediately be as productive as he was before his abdominal injury. With players like Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins taking on bigger roles recently, it’s unlikely Gilgeous-Alexander will play over 30 minutes, which will limit his opportunities on offense.
The Thunder are the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals, and they'll likely be cautious with Gilgeous-Alexander's minutes to preserve him for the playoffs. DraftKings lists Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points at -111, but I would consider playing this at the best sports betting sites up to -130.
💡 How I'm betting Nuggets vs. Thunder
I’m putting 2.67 units - 1 unit being 1% of my bankroll - on my Nuggets vs. Thunder player props. While I feel fairly confident in both of these plays, it’s more likely that Jokic’s assists line is too high.
I expect the Nuggets to be competitive in this matchup, as it remains to be seen how productive Gilgeous-Alexander will be in his first game back. However, the Thunder will likely still win straight up, especially if Murray doesn’t play.
💰️ Sports betting how-to: Bankroll management
LJ Blut breaks down his approach to bankroll management.
🚑 Nuggets vs. Thunder injuries
📺 How to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder
- Date: Friday, Feb. 27
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: ESPN
📈 My win/loss record: Updated Feb. 27
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Record | Net profit | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parlay | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
| Player prop | 25-19-3 | +4.58 units ✅ | 8.1% ✅ |
| Overall | 26-27-3 | +3.23 units ✅ | 5.4% ✅ |
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