Skip to main content

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Murray & Adebayo

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 13, 2024 5:32 PM EDT • 2 min 50 sec read.

Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets drives to the basket as we look at our Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props.
Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets drives against Royce O'Neale #00 of the Phoenix Suns at Ball Arena on March 5, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images via AFP.

The Miami Heat host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, as we target Jamal Murray, Bam Adebayo, and Michael Porter Jr. with our Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.

The lines have altered as tip-off nears, with Jamal Murray's bet365 prop (Over 28.5 points and assists) lengthening from -116 to -130, and Michael Porter's FanDuel prop (Under 2.5 3-pointers) lengthening significantly, from +100 to -102. 

Bam Adebayo's DraftKings prop (Under 19.5 points) has shortened marginally, from -120 to -110. 

The Heat and Nuggets meet tonight for the final time this season. The Nuggets won the first meeting 103-97 in Denver on Feb. 29. In that game, Porter Jr. scored 30 and pulled down 11 rebounds to lead the Nuggets. Murray left the game early with a sprained ankle.

The Heat were led by Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who scored 22 and 21, respectively. Who has the edge on Wednesday?

To accompany our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, here are our best Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player prop predictions

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Nuggets vs. Heat player props

Murray Over 28.5 points + assists (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Murray has been stuffing the stat sheet since injuring his ankle on Feb. 29 against the Heat. He’s averaging 26.8 points and 9.4 assists per game during the previous five games, scoring 26 and setting up 12 against the Toronto Raptors on Sunday.

The Heat have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing just 109.9 points per game. But considering Murray’s hot recent play, we don’t expect the defense to nullify his threat. In the first meeting between these two teams, Murray was 2-of-3 from deep in just 14 minutes, so he should return to optimal productivity with a full 35+ minutes.

North Carolina sportsbook offers

Editor's note: With North Carolina sports betting now live, check out our best North Carolina sports betting apps and the best North Carolina sportsbook promos! 21+ and present in NC. Take advantage of these pre-launch offers!

FanDuel (bet $5 get $250) | Caesars (bet $10, get $250) | bet365 (bet $5, get $200) | DraftKings (bet $5, get $250) | BetMGM (bet $5, get $150)

(21+ only. Underage persons are not allowed to wager. Gambling Problem? Call 877-718-5543 or text “morethanagamenc” to 53342.)

Michael Porter Jr. Under 2.5 3-pointers (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Porter Jr. averages 2.7 made 3-pointers per game, but the Heat are 11th in the league in opponent 3-point percentage. Porter Jr. has hit over 2.5 three-pointers in just one of his last three games, in which he made three. 

The -104 price shows how much play this prop has gotten in the last few hours. The price for Porter Jr. to go over is at -130 at FanDuel and our best sports betting sites. 

That implies a 56.52% chance of hitting at least three 3-pointers, which, in this game, seems high. 

Bam Adebayo Under 19.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The price for this prop ranges from -110 to -123 at our best sports betting apps. Considering how Adebayo has played in recent games, the value DraftKings offers is too good to pass up.

Adebayo has been held under 19 points in his last four games. In their other meeting this season, he scored 22 against the Nuggets, but he also went 6-of-6 from the free throw line. It’s doubtful the 76.1% free throw shooter will have a performance like that again tonight.

The Nuggets rank 17th in the league in points allowed in the paint per game. Therefore, with all things equal, we expect Adebayo to stretch his streak to five consecutive games below his season average tonight.

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA player props, made Wednesday at 10:29 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.