🏀 Nets vs. Pistons Player Props Tonight: Duren Expert Pick

My Nets vs. Pistons player props tonight take advantage of mispriced lines on Jalen Duren and Michael Porter Jr.

Corey Scott

Last Updated: March 7, 2026 2:56 PM EST • 4 minute read

Pictured: Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren (0) reacts as we break down our Nets vs. Pistons player props tonight. Photo by Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images.

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The Detroit Pistons will be short-handed tonight when they host the Brooklyn Nets, as Cade Cunningham (quad) and Ausar Thompson (ankle) are both out. While that may worry spread bettors - the Pistons are a 12.5-point betting favorite over the Nets - changing lineups provide more opportunities for us to find edges in our Nets vs. Pistons player props tonight.

Tipoff from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit is slated for 6 p.m. ET. The two biggest mispriced lines in the market involve Jalen Duren and Michael Porter Jr., and I have a five-star play on Duren and a four-star bet on Porter. All of my NBA best bets are tracked, and my record is displayed below the analysis for tonight's top picks.

🏀 Best Nets vs. Pistons player props tonight: NBA picks for March 7

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Player	Prop bet	Units	Confidence
Jalen Duren, Pistons	Over 18.5 points (-115 via BetMGM)	1.73u -> 1.5u	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michael Porter Jr., Nets	Under 21.5 points (-109 via DraftKings)	1.09u -> 1u	⭐⭐⭐⭐

Total wagered: 2.82 units | Max profit: 2.5 units

💰 Best Nets vs. Pistons prop bet

The Pistons have the seventh-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.

Jalen Duren Over 18.5 points (-115)

Duren will likely be the No. 1 option on offense tonight with Cunningham and Thompson out. Duren scored a game-high 31 points the last time he played without Cunningham and Thompson, in a win over the Indiana Pacers on Nov. 17.

Duren scores down low - he hasn't attempted a 3-pointer all season - and the Nets allow the sixth-highest 2-point percentage in the NBA at 57%. BetMGM has Duren Over 18.5 points at -115, but I would still play it at any of the best sports betting sites up to -140.

🔥 More Nets vs. Pistons prop picks

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Michael Porter Jr. Under 21.5 points (-109)

Nolan Traore's rise in touches has led to less scoring from Porter. Traore's points per game jumped from 7.8 in January to 12.2 in February, while Porter's fell from 25.1 to 19.6 over the same span.

I project we'll see a similar trajectory for both players in March, so the last thing I want to do is bet Porter's Over on points. It also doesn't hurt that Detroit ranks first in the East in defensive efficiency. DraftKings lists Porter Under 21.5 points at -109, but this bet is good up to -125 at any of the best NBA betting sites.

📈 My win/loss record: Updated March 7

All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.

Bet type	Record	Net profit	ROI
Parlays	1-8	-1.34 units ❌	-49.68% ❌
Player props	40-34-3	+2.53 units ✅	2.7% ✅
Overall	41-42-3	+1.19 units ✅	1.2% ✅

🤑 Nets vs. Pistons betting splits

Here is my analysis of tonight's Nets-Pistons betting splits (h/t BetMGM):

	% of bets 🎟️	% of handle 💰
Nets ML (+625)	35%	3%
Pistons ML (-1000)	65%	97%
Nets +14.5	33%	23%
Pistons -14.5	67%	77%
Over 214.5	66%	56%
Under 214.5	34%	44%

These splits were from before Cunningham was announced out, which moved the line from 14 to 12.5 (he was questionable earlier in the afternoon).

So while 97% of the handle being on Pistons ML is out of the ordinary, I can almost guarantee that a lot of money came in on the Nets at +625 when Cunningham was announced out.

Pistons -14.5 was the more popular spread bet, per tickets and handle, and while that's a bad bet at this point in time, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit still manages to win by 13 or 14 and middles the books.

💡 How I'm betting Nets vs. Pistons

For my bankroll strategy, I treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I've set aside exclusively for sports betting. I've allocated 2.82 units for this game - which is more than I typically would bet on two player props - because I'm confident that Duren's points prop is too low.

I'm expecting this to be a blowout tonight, and while that's usually bad for betting players' Overs, I'm confident that Duren can score 19+ in the first three quarters of the game.

💰️ What does bankroll mean in betting?

LJ Blut offers his take on how to approach bankroll management.

🚑 Nets vs. Pistons injuries

📺 How to watch Nets vs. Pistons

Date: Saturday, March 7
Tipoff: 6 p.m. ET
Location: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit)
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Detroit, YES Network

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Written by:
Corey Scott

Corey is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review and holds a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting from the College of Sports Media in Toronto. He is one of the NBA player-prop specialists at SBR and focuses on the impact of injuries to identify where the market has been slow to adjust. Corey also frequently bets sides in the NBA, NFL, MLB, and CFL, typically using a top-down approach to beat the closing line. His work has appeared across the USA Today Network, Gambling.com Group, and Athlon Sports. With more than a decade of sports betting experience, Corey is familiar with all types of operators, from regulated sportsbooks to less conventional platforms, though he primarily uses Pinnacle and FanDuel. While he rarely bets parlays anymore - unless they are clearly mispriced - his biggest win came from a seven-team parlay at +13675 odds. Corey visits Las Vegas multiple times a year. His favorite resort is the Wynn/Encore, though he can be found at any sportsbook offering an off-market number.