🏀 NBA MVP Odds 2026: How 65-Game Rule Comes Into Play for SGA & Jokic
I'm diving into the latest NBA MVP odds following the 2026 All-Star Break and how best to attack the betting market as we enter the final stretch of the season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to take home the honor, as he's been all season. Is he worth a wager at this point or can any of the other contenders finally supplant the Thunder superstar? I also break down why the 65-game threshold deserves your attention.
📊 NBA MVP odds
Our NBA MVP odds update in real time from our best sports betting sites. See the NBA odds for the best odds on each game during the 2025-26 season.
🏆 Who is the NBA MVP favorite?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-175) remains the NBA MVP odds favorite, though the race has tightened up considerably in recent weeks.
SGA had odds shorter than -400 at one point this season amid Nikola Jokic's injury absence. But Jokic (+300) is back in action and back to his usual dominant self as he looks to unseat the Thunder point guard.
Gilgeous-Alexander's current -175 odds at BetMGM translate to an implied probability of 63.64%, per our odds converter.
🤔 Can anyone pass SGA & Jokic?
Jokic remains the top contender to Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP. The pair have combined for four of the past five awards - three for Jokic and one for Gilgeous-Alexander.
While Luka Donic (+2500) leads the league in points per game, his defensive play continues to be magnified amid his Lakers performing below expectations. Additionally, he, Jokic, and the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama (+3500) may not qualify for postseason awards due to their respective injury absences (I'll get into that controversial rule a bit more later on).
As a result, the Pistons' Cade Cunningham (+1400), who has Detroit in first place in the Eastern Conference, is the field's best option to overtake SGA for this award. Watch for his odds to shorten in the home stretch of the regular season.
🚑 Who is in danger of missing the 65-game cutoff?
To be eligible for major awards, NBA players must appear in at least 65 regular-season games and play 20-plus minutes in each of those contests. There are some exceptions to that rule, but that is the main stipulation to be considered and what has disqualified award contenders in recent seasons.
Here are the top five NBA MVP contenders and how many games each can stand to miss and still remain eligible for the award:
| Player | Games missed | Remaining games they can miss |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 16 | 1 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 14 | 3 |
| Luka Doncic | 12 | 5 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 7 | 10 |
| Cade Cunningham | 4 | 13 |
The main focus here is Jokic, who can only miss one more game before he's at his limit. There are still 28 games remaining for the Nuggets. With the Denver star already having three regular-season MVPs in his trophy case, I don't think the team will risk Jokic's health heading into the playoffs in order to give him a better chance in this award race.
The other players to track are Wembanyama and Doncic, who both have durability concerns that have followed them throughout their careers.
As a result, I expect Jokic, Wembanayama, and Doncic to all be disqualified from taking home NBA MVP by the end of the regular season.
💰 Best bet to win NBA MVP
Given the 65-game rule, the only choice here is Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder point guard is averaging more than 30 points per game for the fourth consecutive season and has Oklahoma City atop the standings. While Gilgeous-Alexander missed time leading into the All-Star Break with an abdominal strain, he still has 10 games of wiggle room to ensure he can qualify for the award.
Bet SGA now before his odds skyrocket when his primary competition dissipates from this race. The -175 odds available at BetMGM won't last for long. Additionally, I'm going to be sprinkling a smaller bet on Cunningham, given that his odds are sure to shorten as well.
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-175 via BetMGM)
📜 NBA MVP betting history
Here are the last eight NBA MVP winners and their preseason betting odds.
| Year | Player | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | +600 |
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +450 |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | 76ers | +600 |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +1600 |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +2500 |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | +210 |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | +475 |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | Rockets | +1100 |
❓ NBA MVP FAQs
Who is the NBA MVP odds favorite?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP odds favorite at -175 odds, which translate to an implied probability of 63.64%.
Who won the NBA MVP last year?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP last year ahead of Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.
When will the NBA MVP be decided?
The NBA MVP was announced in late May 2025 for last season, so expect it around that time this year for the 2026 award.
What is the NBA MVP trophy called?
The NBA MVP trophy was renamed the Michael Jordan Trophy. It's awarded annually to the NBA's Most Valuable Player.
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