Hornets vs. Heat Picks, Predictions: Miami Looks to Handle Business
We have a short NBA slate on Thursday and it includes a matchup between two struggling teams, although the host finds itself as a 10.5-point favorite. Check out our Charlotte Hornets-Miami Heat NBA picks.
The 3-9 Hornets went through offseason turmoil off the court and lately on the court, after losing star point guard LaMelo Ball to injury. They rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rating and have lost four straight road games since pounding the Atlanta Hawks on October 23. The Heat entered the season with playoff aspirations and despite an inactive offseason, possessed a championship ceiling.
However, a rough schedule combined with poor offensive play late in games has handed Miami a few heartbreaking losses. The Heat enter Thursday at 4-7 on the season. Yet, they find themselves as favorites by more than 10 points for the first time since March 28 last season when they took care of business against the Sacramento Kings.
Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Hornets and Heat (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Hornets vs. Heat Game Info
Date: Thursday, Nov. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: BSSUN, BSSE
Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Hornets vs. Heat Odds
Hornets vs. Heat Odds Analysis
The Heat have questionable tags on starters Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin and will once again be without backup guard Victor Oladipo and center Omer Yurtseven. The Hornets have already ruled out Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Cody Martin. The public has been on the Heat against the spread, with 65% of the tickets and 95% of the money on Miami.
As for the total, this is a meeting between a mediocre defensive team in Charlotte and a good defensive team in Miami with two possible struggles on offense. That would be especially true if the Heat remain without Herro. That is probably why 55% of the public bets and 82% of the money have been on the Under. The consensus line dropped to 214.
Hornets vs. Heat Picks
Hornets vs. Heat ATS Pick
Heat -10.5 (-110) ★★
The Hornets are getting outright screwed with this draw. While both teams are dealing with significant injuries, Charlotte had to travel and is on the second leg of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Heat completed their first schedule gauntlet and now have a home game off of two days of rest.
Since last season, the Heat are 18-10-0 against the spread when they have the rest advantage; their 64.3% cover rate ranks first in the NBA in that span. They're also 24-16-1 against the spread following a loss and their 60.0% cover rate ranks sixth in the NBA in that span.
After a heartbreaking loss to Josh Hart’s buzzer-beating three a few days ago, head coach Erik Spoelstra should have enough time to make adjustments on offense and attack the lack of switchability the Hornets have defensively. I predict Miami will have at least one of Herro and/or Martin back in the lineup to ensure it doesn't have issues taking care of a broken Hornets team.
Hornets vs. Heat O/U Pick
Over 214 (-107) ★★
This line is suspect; the Hornets and the Heat rank 16th and 22nd in the NBA, respectively, in pace. Yet, only five of the Hornets' 12 games and two of the Heat's 11 games finished under this number. The speed should likely pick up for the Heat with the extra rest they have and their ability to turn defense into offense. The Hornets allow the 10th-most points per game off of turnovers and the fifth-most second-chance points per game this season.
Additionally, the Hornets have allowed the eighth-most points per game in the paint this season, and Miami ranks 14th in the NBA in drives per game. On the other end, the Heat have allowed the fewest points per game in the paint. That doesn’t bode well for the Hornets, who rank seventh in drives per game. The public is on the Under, but it’s smart to take the Over before Herro officially returns to the starting lineup.
Hornets vs. Heat Prop Pick
Plumlee Under 7.5 points (-125) ★★★
As mentioned above, no team in the NBA has allowed fewer points per game in the paint this season than the Heat. Additionally, the Heat have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game this season to centers. Couple that with the low implied team total for the Hornets and it is bad news for paint-centric starting center Mason Plumlee, who has not found success against Bam Adebayo in a long time. As a member of the Hornets, Plumlee has met Adebayo four times and scored 1, 6, 2, and 4 points.
Furthermore, if we are right about our against-the-spread lean, the Heat could run away with this game. That blowout potential could open the doors of opportunity for backup Hornets bigs Nick Richards and Mark Williams.
To pour on the bad news for Plumlee, who plays physically and was in foul trouble the last time he faced the Heat, the crew chief for Thursday's game is Jacyn Goble. Goble ranks third among NBA referees in personal fouls per game above average (plus-4.0).
Where to Bet on Hornets vs. Heat Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Hornets-Heat picks from 11/10/2022 at 12:21 p.m. ET.
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