Heat vs. 76ers Game 4 Picks: Can Miami Bounce Back After Cold Shooting Night?

After making his return in Game 3, Joel Embiid will look to help his 76ers even the series. Let's dive in with our Heat-76ers Picks.

The Miami Heat just suffered a 20-point loss in Game 3, and what once felt like an over-and-done series has new life. Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green combined for 42 of Philadelphia’s 99 points on a jaw-dropping 12-for-15 shooting from beyond the arc. This series could be heading back to Miami at 2-2 if they produce another similar performance.

Unfortunately for the Philadelphia faithful, negative regression is coming for the 76ers' shooters, and the opposite could be true for Miami.

Here are my Heat-76ers picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA playoff matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. 76ers Game Info

Date/Time: 7 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia PA

Heat vs. 76ers Odds Analysis

The drubbing the Heat received barely moved the opening spread for this game. The 76ers closed as one-point favorites for Game 3, but they opened as only 1.5-point favorites for Game 4. That number has since moved to two at most books. The Heat have attracted 58% of the tickets, but the 76ers have received 64% of the cash.

The total hasn’t budged much. It opened at 208, but it's since dropped to 207.5 at most books, though you can find it at 207. The Over is attracting 72% of the tickets and 66% of the cash so far.

Heat vs. 76ers Picks

Heat (+110 via DraftKings) ?????Over 207 (-110 via FanDuel) ???Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes (+145 via DraftKings) ???

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Heat vs. 76ers Predictions

Heat (+110)

The Heat should win after a disastrous Game 3. They converted only 23.3% of their 3-point attempts in that contest after making 48.3% in Game 2 and 37.9% during the regular season, an NBA-best. The 76ers allowed their opponents to make 34.6% of their treys in the regular season. So unless Philadelphia conjured an elite perimeter defense from the ether, Miami’s shooters should enjoy much more success in Game 4.

Likewise, the 76ers shot absurdly well in Game 3, and they won’t be able to sustain that pace. The Heat were contesting the 76ers’ looks, with P.J. Tucker and Max Strus challenging 12 threes, Adebayo one, and Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo four. Philadelphia still managed to score from distance, and somehow Tucker, Strus, and Oladipo allowed a 50% 3-point percentage, Adebayo allowed 40%, and Lowry finished at 75%.

Before Game 3, Oladipo had given up one three on 14%, Adebayo had allowed one on 25%, Tucker coughed up only two on 40%, and Strus had permitted four on 40%. Look for some regression back toward those numbers on Sunday night.

Furthermore, the 76ers were able to get their shooters away from Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent, two of Miami’s best perimeter defenders, in a way that shouldn't happen again. Butler had contested 12 of Philadelphia’s threes in Games 1 and 2, allowing only four to hit. But he only contested one in Game 3. Likewise, Vincent contested 11 triples while allowing just one in Games 1 and 2, but he challeneged only one in Game 3.

Over 207 (-110)

Back the Over, as the Heat's positive regression will lead to better shooting and more points. Further, despite the sub-200-point performances in Games 1 and 3, these teams are averaging a combined 199.3 points per game in this series and 213.4 in the playoffs.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Over on this number would’ve gone 2-1-1. The Over is 49-40-1 in Miami’s games thus far, and it’s 12-7 when the Heat play as road underdogs. Meanwhile, the 76ers have gone 42-47-2 to the Over this campaign, it’s 32-29-2 when they’re favored.

This number moved down after a worst-case scenario for Miami’s offense. But Kyle Lowry has benefited from more time to get back up to game speed. The same goes for Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid.

I don’t love the total as much as I like targeting Miami, but it’s hard to go wrong with taking the Over against a relatively low number here.

Herro Over 2.5 threes (+145)

Herro sank at least three triples in half of his regular-season games. We’ve seen him do that twice this series already, too. Herro failed to hit the Over in Game 3, but that wasn’t for a lack of volume. He still jacked up a series-high seven long-range shots in the loss.

He's been drawing tight coverage from Matisse Thybulle for long stretches. Herro has only taken one three when the defensive ace has been covering him, but that attempt fell. Thybulle has been playing just 15-20 minutes this series, which has given Herro enough time to cook Philadelphia’s other defenders. Herro is 4-for-6 shooting from long range against Tyrese Maxey, his secondary defender.

It's somewhat surprising to see this number so far into the plus money. FanDuel Sportsbook has set the line at +132, so we’re getting a decent bit of value while going with DraftKings.

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Where to Bet on Heat-76ers Picks

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Heat-76ers picks made 5/8/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.