Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Low-Scoring Christmas Day Matchup

Get our best Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds, picks and predictions for Christmas Day!

Last Updated: December 25, 2022 7:06 AM EST • 3 minute read

The Christmas Day matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors sets up to be a high-scoring affair, even without Stephen Curry. Will it live up to the national hype? Read on for our Grizzlies vs. Warriors NBA picks.

The Warriors (15-18) are still struggling to find their balance with guard Stephen Curry absent from the lineup. Golden State has been muddling through a long road trip, dropping each of its last two games by 30 or more points.

The Memphis Grizzlies (20-11) have been cruising of late with wins in eight of their last 10 games. Between two notable Western Conference foes, we’re taking a close look at the line movement. Season-long trends suggest the movement has provided a window of value on the total.

Here is our best Grizzlies vs. Warriors NBA pick for Christmas Day (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA best bets and all of our top NBA picks for Christmas Day!

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game Info

Date: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

This line opened early at a consensus of Warriors -4.5. We got an early line for the Christmas Day special so the tables obviously turned after news of Curry’s injury. The line has shifted to Grizzlies -8 as of gameday.

The total opened at 225.5 and despite the absence of the best shooter in the sport, the number has increased to 232.5 at many of our Best NBA Betting Sites.

Check out our Grizzlies vs. Warriors SGP Picks!

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Pick

Under 229 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Golden State games have gone 20-12-1 on the Over on the season, the highest rate in the NBA. That helps explain the total trending upward ahead of Sunday's game, but my view of the trends suggest that the line movement could be a nice gift from Santa delivered to Under bettors.

While the Warriors have been stalwarts for the Over this season, the numbers aren’t the same when you isolate to include only their home games. Golden State home games are just 6-8 on Over this season, an Over rate that ranks 23rd in the league. That plays nicely into the Grizzlies’ trend on totals for road games as games involving Memphis are 7-9 on the Over for the season.

Overs are objectively more fun to bet and it’s natural for the public to want to have some fun on Christmas Day. As a result, bettors try to push games into lofty scoring territory by sheer will. I’m not saying it’s definitely just wishful thinking in this case as both sides have a number of exciting players; however, with Unders hitting at a rate around 60% on Christmas going back to 2005, there is value in fading the total as the public desire for shootouts pushes the number too high.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Best Odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
O/U 228.5	O/U 228	O/U 228.5	O/U 229	O/U 228
-110u	-110u	-110u	-110u	-107u

FanDuel offers the least favorable option for Under bettors in this matchup as it matches the PointBet line of 228 while providing lower odds, -110 compared to -107. We’re not targeting either of those spots for this wager.

DraftKings and BetMGM are decent choices, providing standard -110 odds on the slightly better line of 228.5. But the best place to bet the Under is actually Caesars, which lists the total a full point higher than DraftKings or PointsBet at 229. That Caesars maintains standard -110 odds on this Under bet makes it the strongest value on the board.

Grizzlies-Warriors pick made 12/24/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target player prop markets using his NFL experience, as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.