Will Giannis Antetokounmpo Be Traded? Odds & Prediction Ahead of NBA Trade Deadline

The Milwaukee Bucks have reportedly been listening to offers from other NBA teams for their franchise star, which means it’s time to break down the latest Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors.

With the Bucks star sidelined for the next several weeks due to a calf strain, the New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, and Minnesota Timberwolves have emerged as the frontrunners to acquire Antetokounmpo.

Will Giannis be traded before the NBA trade deadline on Feb. 5? And if so, which team is most likely to land the two-time NBA MVP?

📊 Will Giannis be traded?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The market on Kalshi for Antetokounmpo’s next team shows a 46% chance he will remain with the Bucks after the trade deadline.

The Warriors are the most likely team to acquire him before the deadline with a 22% chance. The Knicks are next in line at 16%, while the Heat drop to just 12%. The Timberwolves rank fourth among the teams looking to trade for him with a 5% likelihood in the marketplace.

🏀 Which teams could trade for Giannis?

Check out all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

The following teams are believed to be the most serious suitors to land Antetokounmpo, according to ESPN reporting and Kalshi’s odds:

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors will have to get creative to match salaries in a trade for Antetokounmpo (outside of trading Jimmy Butler and draft picks, which the Bucks would likely reject).

Golden State may need to involve a third team to match salaries, as Jonathan Kuminga makes just $22.5 million this year compared to Antetokounmpo’s $54.1 million, and the Warriors’ salaries drop sharply after that.

New York Knicks

The Knicks’ dream scenario in this trade would be Karl-Anthony Towns plus draft picks for Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks would likely want some younger players. A deal in which the Knicks add Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek could be more attractive to the Bucks, who could then decide what to do with Towns in the offseason.

Miami Heat

The Heat would likely have to move Tyler Herro in this scenario, as he makes $31 million this year and could match a significant portion of Antetokounmpo’s contract.

A package of Herro, Davion Mitchell, and Kel’el Ware (plus picks) would be able to match Antetokounmpo’s salary. It would also make the Bucks younger while adding plus-2 wins for Milwaukee, according to ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are clearly in win-now mode, but they own only two first-round picks over the next four drafts after trading for Rudy Gobert in 2022.

Minnesota can match salaries easily by including Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, and a role player in a deal, but is it willing to sell off future draft picks once again?

🔮 Prediction for Giannis' next team: Knicks

See all of our experts' NBA predictions based on the latest NBA odds.

As liquidity in this market grows, I expect Golden State’s odds to drop, since the Warriors would have to jump through so many hoops to match salaries while still keeping a competitive team on the court.

The Knicks’ chances of landing Antetokounmpo will largely depend on how open the Bucks are to acquiring Towns. If Milwaukee sees value in flipping Towns in the offseason, I’d project New York to jump Golden State in the odds. At 16%, the Knicks offer the best value right now.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook. For example, in an NFL-style market, there could be a contract asking whether the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. If you think they will, you might buy a “Yes” contract at 35 cents, which implies a 35 percent chance. If the Bills win, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 65 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0. Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line. Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on Bills vs. Broncos at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

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