Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets March 7: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tonight

Eight NBA games tip off before the weekend tonight, with NBA championship odds contenders gearing up for relatively easy matchups.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Portland Trail Blazers, and we’re expecting Chet Holmgren to make an impact if he returns from his one-game absence. Additionally, our NBA player props tonight also spotlight Tyler Herro and Mikal Bridges, with bets focused on their matchups.

🤕 Key NBA players out tonight 

• Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle), Grizzlies vs. Mavericks
• RJ Barrett (ankle), Raptors vs. Jazz
• Lauri Markkanen (back), Jazz vs. Raptors
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rest), Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
• Damontas Sabonis (hamstring), Kings vs. Spurs
• Norman Powell (hamstring), Clippers vs. Knicks

💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 7

Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

• Zach Edey player prop pick: Over 8.5 points (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chet Holmgren player prop pick: Over 16.5 points (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tyler Herro player prop pick: Under 25.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Mikal Bridges player prop pick: Under 4.5 assists (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today

Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.

🏀 Zach Edey (Grizzlies) Over 8.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.33)

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Many assumed before the season that Edey would be among the NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorites. But even after injuries to some of the game's top freshmen, he's still part of a group of contenders trading at relatively long odds.

Edey hasn't been especially impressive this year, averaging only 9.3 points and 7.8 rebounds despite starting the majority of games. That's because he averages just 20 minutes per contest, likely due to his lack of impact offensively.

However, Edey has been much more aggressive shooting the ball lately, attempting at least seven field goals in each of his last three games, and he's gone Over this number in three of his previous five.

The big man is projected to score 11.3 points tonight, so we're getting a huge edge on Over 8.5. Based on that projection, this should be trading at 9.5, and I'd play that to as short as -120. At this number, I'd play the Over at any odds.

📊 Zach Edey player prop odds vs. Mavericks

🏀 Chet Holmgren (Thunder) Over 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.33)

I backed Holmgren two nights ago, but he missed the game with an injury. However, he could return to action tonight, and the Thunder are set to be without plenty of key starters, allowing Holmgren to get more active on the offensive end.

Holmgren is projected to score 20.7 points tonight against the Trail Blazers, a huge number in comparison to this relatively low total. Based on that projection, the break-even price on Over 16.5 points is -248, so play this at any odds.

If this moves up to 17.5, you can also play it at almost any price, with my limit being around -150. Our best NBA betting sites are unlikely to go that short on a points total without moving the number.

If it moves to 18.5, that's when we have to start setting limits. I would play Over 18.5 to as short as -120, but the fact that we're talking about the same price on a total two points higher than this shows just how valuable this number is here.

📊 Chet Holmgren player prop odds vs. Trail Blazers

🏀 Tyler Herro (Heat) Under 25.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8.33)

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We faded Herro two nights ago in the assists market before he missed the Miami Heat's game with an illness. The fact that it wasn't an injury bodes well for his return tonight, though he's not expected to put together an especially spectacular performance.

Herro is projected for just 22 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves, well below the 26 he'd need to clear this total.

Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 28% +EV through these -120 odds at both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you're wondering what that means exactly, it's that the break-even price for this Under is around -230, and we're getting a price of -120. That sounds pretty good to me.

📊 Tyler Herro player prop odds vs. Timberwolves

🏀 Mikal Bridges (Knicks) Under 4.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $12)

We hit on a Bridges prop last night in the New York Knicks' game against the Los Angeles Lakers, cashing his Over 2.5 rebounds. However, we're fading him tonight in this second game of a back-to-back set after that one went to overtime.

Bridges will still probably play a ton of minutes tonight because, well, it's the Tom Thibodeau Knicks. However, he's not expected to do much damage as a facilitator.

The guard is expected to record only 3.1 assists tonight, right around what he finished with last night in 43 minutes.

Based on that projection, the value we're getting on this bet is nuts - it's 73% +EV, to be exact. This total should absolutely be 3.5, and it likely will be ahead of tipoff. Bet the Under 4.5 at literally any odds before this moves.

📊 Mikal Bridges player prop odds vs. Clippers

🏆Tonight's NBA expert picks

• Suns vs. Nuggets NBA player props
• Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction
• Underdog NBA picks for tonight

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.

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