Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets, March 5: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tonight

Tonight’s NBA slate features eight matchups, including two NBA championship odds contenders facing sub-.500 opponents. Our best NBA player props today highlight key players from the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers, both primed for strong performances.

We’re also eyeing a standout from the Oklahoma City Thunder, who face a tricky road test against a dangerous Memphis Grizzlies squad. With championship hopefuls in action, it’s a great night to find value in player props.

💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 5

Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

• Jayson Tatum player prop pick: Under 7.5 assists (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Donovan Mitchell player prop pick: Over 3.5 rebounds (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chet Holmgren player prop pick: Over 14.5 points (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ausar Thompson player prop pick: Under 13.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks tonight

Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.

🏀 Jayson Tatum (Celtics) Under 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $7.14)

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Tatum is averaging a career high with 5.8 assists per game this season, and he really stepped up his game as a facilitator in February with seven dimes per contest. However, that's still below this total, and his projection for tonight's game against the lowly Trail Blazers doesn't inspire confidence that he'll rack up the assists.

The star forward is projected for just 5.7 assists. Based on that, Under 7.5 assists should be trading closer to ... wait for it ... -300. We're getting a ton of value on this prop, and you could play it down to Under 6.5 at odds of -130 or longer if our best NBA betting sites move it that far.

📊 Jayson Tatum player prop odds vs. Trail Blazers

🏀 Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) Over 3.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $8)

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No one would ever accuse Mitchell of being a rebounding machine. After all, he's averaging just 4.3 per game this season. But he's expected to get closer to five tonight against the Miami Heat. Based on that projection of 4.7 boards, Over 3.5 should be trading closer to -150, which is exactly where FanDuel has this prop. In fact, DraftKings offers this Over at -145 and Caesars is at -148, so we're getting a great price at BetMGM.

The Heat aren't exactly tanking, but they aren't very good. They'll be without starters Andrew Wiggins and Kel'el Ware tonight, and Davion Mitchell is also listed as questionable. This could result in players like Tyler Herro chucking up 20-plus shots, as was the case the last time these two teams met. The Cavaliers won by 20 that night.

📊 Donovan Mitchell player prop odds vs. Heat

🏀 Chet Holmgren (Thunder) Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $7.69)

It looked like Holmgren finally found his footing toward the end of February after having a relatively slow first three games back with the Thunder. He managed at least 19 points in those next three, and though he's struggled with efficiency in his last two, I like him to go Over this points total tonight.

Holmgren is projected for 17.5 points tonight in what should be a tightly contested game. Based on that number, this should be trading closer to -170. This one could move quickly, so you'll have to act quickly. If you're betting Over 15.5 points, I'd play this to around -120. If it moves all the way to 16.5, I'd leave it alone unless you're getting good plus money on the Over.

📊 Chet Holmgren player prop odds vs. Grizzlies

🏀 Ausar Thompson (Pistons) Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8)

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Thompson has been hot of late, scoring at least 13 points in three straight games (vs. an average of 11 as a starter for the season). However, he isn't expected to have as much success against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Thompson is projected for just 10.3, as much of his recent scoring success has come via unsustainable efficiency (he shot 7-for-7 from the floor last game).

With regression looming, we can feel safe betting Under 13.5 points at any odds, as the break-even price is nearly -300. If this moves to 12.5 as I expect it will, you can still feel comfortable playing the Under at basically any odds. It would be only once it moves to 11.5 that I'd be more cautious. At that point, I'd likely play this Under to around -120.

📊 Ausar Thompson player prop odds vs. Clippers

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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