🏀 NBA Player Props Today: Best Bets & Picks for Monday’s 4-Game Slate

There are just four NBA games on today, with the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors closing out the slate in San Francisco. A smaller schedule means fewer opportunities to find edges, but I’ve still identified three strong value plays.

My NBA player props today start with Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant, who returns to D.C. to face the Washington Wizards. This is a five-star pick to win 1.5 units, as I'm confident that his line is mispriced. Next, I focus on Warriors guard De'Anthony Melton against the Clippers; Melton has been aggressive, and his line sits at 15.5 points today. I finish my NBA best bets with Utah Jazz guard Ace Bailey, taking on the Denver Nuggets.

🏀 Best NBA player props today: March 2

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.92 units | Max profit: 3.5 units

💰 Best NBA player prop bet today

The Houston Rockets have the eighth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.

Kevin Durant Under 24.5 points (-113) at Wizards

You would think that since Durant is from the DMV, he would go over his points total when he returns home. However, Durant has scored 23 or fewer points in his last two games at the Wizards.

Maybe, as a veteran, Durant no longer feels the need to show off for his hometown crowd. What I believe is more likely is that Durant is busy when he visits, leaving him with less energy to be aggressive on offense once the game tips off. The best price for this prop is -113 at DraftKings, but there's value up to -130.

🔥 More NBA player prop picks

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

De'Anthony Melton Over 15.5 points (-115) vs. Clippers

The Warriors have seven players either out or listed as questionable on the injury report for today, so who will step up? Melton has scored 17 or more points in four of his last five games and has attempted 12 or more shots four times in that span.

While he scored just 10 against the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday, he attempted 12 shots - tying a team high - which is a good sign moving forward. DraftKings lists this prop at -115, but I would consider playing it at any of the best sports betting sites up to -125.

Ace Bailey Over 15.5 points (-107) vs. Nuggets

Denver is coming off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and its next game is against L.A. on Thursday, so how focused will it be defensively today? I'm banking on Bailey, who has attempted 15 or more shots in four of his last five games, to be the beneficiary of the Nuggets' lack of defensive intensity.

Bailey scored just 13 points against the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, but he tied a team high with 16 field-goal attempts. DraftKings lists this at -107, but this bet is good up to -115 at any of the best NBA betting sites.

💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today

I feature more NBA bets worth tailing in my Celtics vs. Bucks player props.

My bankroll strategy is to treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I have set aside for betting. I am allocating 3.92 units for this game, with my largest wager on Durant Under 24.5 points (-113). This is slightly more risk than I would typically take for three props, but I'm fairly confident that Durant's points line should be lower.

I expect the Rockets-Wizards game to get out of hand early, the Clippers-Warriors matchup to be more competitive than most people expect, and the Nuggets-Jazz game to be high-scoring but close, with Denver looking ahead to its next matchup.

📈 My win/loss record: Updated March 2

All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.