🏀 NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Top Prop Picks, Predictions & Odds for March 11
We're rolling through the week, which means my best NBA player props are here to build your bankroll on this fine Wednesday after sweeping the board last night. I'm not going to lie, that felt good, and I hope you tailed along for the ride. Let's do it once more - I'm targeting LaMelo Ball, Jalen Brunson, and Nikola Jokic tonight.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: March 11
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball, Hornets | To record 8+ assists (+108 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 2.08u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jalen Brunson, Knicks | Over 26.5 points (-106 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 1.94u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nikola Jokic, Nuggets | Under 50.5 PRA (-120 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 1.83u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 5.85 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet today
LaMelo Ball 8+ assists vs. Kings (+108)
Yes, we're fading the Kings and its swiss cheese defense tonight. Sacramento currently ranks 28th in the NBA in opponent effective field goal percentage, giving me plenty of reason to believe that the Hornets are not only about to put up points in bunches, but also that Ball will have ample opportunity to go over this number as a result. The Kings allow 121.1 points per game (28th), and in a high-possession, transition-heavy game, LaMelo will be dangerous.
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Spread: Hornets -12.5 (-110)
- How to watch Hornets vs. Kings: FDSSE and NBCS-CA
🤑 Point guard supremancy vs. Kings
Sacramento allows an average of 8.9 assists per game to point guards - good for 28th in the NBA.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points vs. Jazz (-106)
Brunson is about to cook this bottom-tier defense, which averages 28 points per game against opposing point guards. Not only does Utah own the 29th-ranked overall defense in the NBA, they play with the third-highest pace in the league, which will give Brunson plenty of possessions, and plenty of opportunities to go over this number. Play this bet at our best NBA betting sites up to -120.
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Spread: Knicks -14.5 (-105)
- How to watch Knicks vs. Jazz: KJZZ
Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Rockets (-120)
Jokic won't be able to get the rebound numbers he's accustomed to tonight while going up against the No. 1 rebounding team in the NBA. The Rockets are also great at defending the paint, ranking sixth in the league down low. A team that's incredible at limiting second chance opportunities and defending the rim should make for an easy Under play here. This bet is good up to -130 at our best sports betting apps.
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Spread: Nuggets -5.5 (-105)
- How to watch Rockets vs. Nuggets: ESPN, SCHN, ALT
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Ball 8+ assists (+108)
- Brunson Over 26.5 points (-106)
- Jokic Under 50.5 PRA (-120)
Best odds: +641 via FanDuel (.2u -> 1.28u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 10
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Player props | 3-0 | +2.65 units ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-0 | +1.13 units ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
I'm allocating three total units (one unit = $100) across three players, exposing an equal amount of my bankroll on each one. Wednesday's card is built around matchup edges I’ve identified, with all three bets looking to exploit defensive mismatches. While I usually don't expose more than a .5 unit on plus-money plays, the data supports backing LaMelo Ball tonight. However you like to play NBA player props, remember to keep your bankroll front of mind.
💰️ Bankroll management
LJ Blut breaks down his approach to bankroll management in sports betting.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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