🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Grimes, Walker & Adebayo Picks for Thursday, April 9
📡 SBR Edge: Grimes Ready for Liftoff, Crashes the Boards in Space City
My NBA player props tonight feature Bam Adebayo Under 20.5 points (-124), as he struggled in Toronto last time out. Next up is Jarace Walker Under 16.5 points (-122). This line is too high, and he hasn't been going over it lately. I wrap up my top NBA picks with Quentin Grimes Over 2.5 rebounds (-105). He has been easily cashing this bet recently, and with no Joel Embiid tonight for the 76ers, there should be more opportunities for defensive boards.
๐ Best NBA player props tonight: April 9
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| ๐ฐ Pick | ๐ก Best odds | โ๏ธ Bet size | ๐ง Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo (MIA) Under 20.5 points | -124 via BetRivers | 1.24u -> 1u | Scored 7 pts vs. Raptors in opener of 2-game set |
| Jarace Walker (IND) Under 16.5 points | -122 via Caesars | 1.22u -> 1u | Has gone Under in 3 straight games |
| Quentin Grimes (PHI) Over 2.5 rebounds | -105 via BetMGM | 1.05u -> 1u | Has grabbed 3+ rebounds in 4 of last 5 games |
Total wagered: 3.51 units | Max profit: 3 units
๐ฐ Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Heat have the 18th-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Bam Adebayo Under 20.5 points (-124) at Raptors
Adebayoโs Under on his points has been the gift that keeps on giving since his controversial 83-point game.
He scored just seven points against the Raptors in the opener of the two-game set on Tuesday, and itโs unlikely that he will score 14 more points tonight against the same opponent. He has scored 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games and has cashed this prop in six of his last eight. BetRivers lists his Under at 20.5 points (-124), but this bet is good up to -150 on the best sports betting sites.
๐ฅ More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jarace Walker Under 16.5 points (-122) at Nets
Walker was on a heater for a while, scoring 20 or more points in consecutive games from March 21โ23, but that has come to an end. He has gone under this line in three straight games, scoring 15 or fewer points in each outing.
Over a larger sample, he has failed to go Over 16.5 points in six of his last eight games. Heโs also seen his minutes decrease over the last four contests. His Under is listed at 16.5 points (-122) at Caesars, but I would play this up to -145 on the best NBA betting sites.
Quentin Grimes Over 2.5 rebounds (-105) at Rockets
Grimes grabbed just two rebounds against the Spurs on Monday, so now weโre acting like his Under should be favored?
With Embiid (illness) out tonight, it will be all hands on deck for grabbing rebounds against the Rockets, and Grimes should play enough minutes to easily grab three or more boards. He has gone over this line in four of his last five games, grabbing a median of four rebounds per game in that span. BetMGM lists this at -105, but I would play it up to -120 on the best sports betting apps.
Quentin Grimes player props trends
Hereโs a look at how Quentin Grimes has performed recently, as well as against the Rockets:
| Bet type | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Rockets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 points | -106 via FanDuel | 3-2 โ | 3-2 โ |
| Over 2.5 rebounds | -105 via BetMGM | 4-1 โ | 3-2 โ |
| Over 2.5 assists | +158 via Pinnacle | 1-4 โ | 3-2 โ |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | +159 via Pinnacle | 2-3 โ | 3-2 โ |
I wouldnโt put any stock in Grimesโ past performances against the Rockets, since his role has fluctuated dramatically depending on whether star players on his team are injured.
🏀 More NBA expert picks tonight
I feature LeBron James and Brandin Podziemski in my Lakers vs. Warriors player props.
๐๏ธ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | Under 11.5 rebounds | -135 |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | Under 20.5 points | -140 |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Under 10.5 points | -145 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | Under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists | -110 |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | Over 12.5 points | -130 |
๐ Best NBA parlay picks tonight
While I like the Heat to bounce back against the Raptors tonight, I don't believe Adebayo needs 21+ points for Miami to cover +4. I would price this bet around +300. Bet365 lists this two-legger at +320, while FanDuel is offering just +273.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Bam Adebayo Under 20.5 points
- Heat +4
Best odds: +320 via bet365 (0.31u -> 1u)
๐ต My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 101-120-4 | -18.96 units โ | -7.5% โ |
| Player props | 93-95-4 | -21.09 units โ | -8.7% โ |
| Parlays | 7-25 | +0.63 units โ | 6.1% โ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units โ | 87% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 3.51 units for the bets in this article, which is what I would usually risk on three player props.
While I'm confident in all of these bets directionally, they aren't priced too far from where I'd set them. If I thought I had a larger edge, I would risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or up to 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario. I treat 1 unit as 1% of my bankroll.
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