NBA MVP Odds & Favorites 2025-26: SGA the Favorite Ahead of Jokic, Doncic
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP odds favorite a month out from the start of the new season ahead of three-time winner Nikola Jokic, who he also beat out in last year's MVP race.
Jokic opened as the odds-on favorite but now trails slightly behind at +320 to SGA's +275. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic (+500) is looking for his first MVP award and sits third on the oddsboard, while Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200) and Victor Wembanyama (+1800) round out the top five.
Based on the odds, it seems likely we will have a non-American NBA MVP for the eighth straight season, with Anthony Edwards having the best odds of all American-born players but ranking sixth overall (+2000).
While Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite, and leading the NBA championship odds favorite Oklahoma City Thunder, I am backing a first-time winner playing for one of the league's marquee franchises.
📊 Live NBA MVP odds 2025-26
Our 2025-26 NBA MVP odds update in real time based on the NBA odds.
🏆 NBA MVP odds favorite
⚡ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+275)
It was a back-and-forth race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic for the hardware a year ago, and it could play out the same way this year. Gilgeous-Alexander is now the favorite ahead of Jokic as his Thunder retained their entire core coming off a championship run.
It makes sense the odds say Gilgeous-Alexander is the most likely to win MVP, based on what we saw from him all of last season, including the playoffs. He's the engine of a well-oiled machine and the best pure scorer the NBA has today.
Gilgeous-Alexander is so efficient offensively that he is almost boring at times, which could work against him as voters look to flashier options, especially considering SGA just won the award in 2025.
His +275 odds translate to an implied probability of 26.67%, with a successful $10 bet netting a $27.50 profit.
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👀 My NBA MVP prediction & best bet
⭐ Luka Doncic (+500)
Luka Doncic has a lot of things working in his favor heading into the 2025-26 season, which could result in him nabbing his first-ever NBA MVP award.
For one, he's playing his first full season with the league's most-covered team; if things are going well for the Lakers, Doncic is sure to get a ton of attention and credit for it.
Much has been made about Doncic improving his conditioning this summer after receiving a ton of criticism for it throughout his career. We've heard similar reports in the past, but let's choose to believe Doncic that he took it seriously this time as he looks to help LeBron James compete for another championship in L.A.
Playing alongside James means sharing the ball and the notoriety, but Doncic led the Lakers in usage rate last year (34.3% in 28 games) and will likely continue to carry the offensive load this season. Not to mention, Los Angeles made significant roster moves reportedly on Doncic's recommendations, adding center Deandre Ayton and guard Marcus Smart.
His +500 odds are enticing, as they translate to an implied probability of 16.67%. A $10 bet on Doncic would net a potential $50 profit.
🔢 NBA MVP opening odds
Odds via DraftKings.
- Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: +200
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: +250
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +700
- Luka Doncic, Lakers: +800
- Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: +1000
- Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: +1800
- Cade Cunningham, Pistons: +3000
- Jalen Brunson, Knicks: +3500
- Joel Embiid, 76ers: +7000
- Kevin Durant, Rockets: +8000
- Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers: +8000
- Jaylen Brown, Celtics: +10000
- Anthony Davis, Mavericks: +10000
- Paolo Banchero, Magic: +10000
- Ja Morant, Grizzlies: +12000
- LeBron James, Lakers: +15000
- Stephen Curry, Warriors: +15000
- Devin Booker, Suns: +18000
- Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks: +25000
- Evan Mobley, Cavaliers: +25000
- Pascal Siakam, Pacers: +25000
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies: +30000
- Trae Young, Hawks: +30000
- Kawhi Leonard, Clippers: +40000
- James Harden, Clippers: +40000
🏆 NBA MVP odds history & past award winners
| Year | Name | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | +600 |
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +450 |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers | +600 |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +1600 |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +2500 |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +210 |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +475 |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | Houston Rockets | +1100 |
❓ NBA MVP FAQs
Who is the NBA MVP odds favorite?
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite at +275 odds, which translate to an implied probability of 26.67%.
Who won the NBA MVP last year?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP last year ahead of Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.
When will the NBA MVP be decided?
The NBA MVP was announced in late May this past season, so expect it then for this upcoming season.
What is the NBA MVP trophy called?
The NBA MVP trophy was renamed the Michael Jordan Trophy. It's awarded annually to the NBA's Most Valuable Player.
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