NASCAR Betting Odds at Martinsville: Xfinity 500 Predictions, Expert Picks & Long Shots
The final playoff race before the NASCAR Cup Series championship begins today at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, as we offer our Xfinity 500 predictions, expert picks, and long shots to win at Martinsville Speedway.
- Chase Elliott is the favorite to win today's race across our best sportsbooks
- Martin Truex Jr. won the pole Saturday in qualifying and owns the second-best odds to win despite not being in the playoffs
- We're expecting a strong showing from Hendrick Motorsports as part of our best NASCAR prop bets and winner predictions
Here is our race preview for today based on the latest NASCAR betting odds.
NASCAR betting odds at Martinsville 2024
Martinsville raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Nov. 3
| Driver | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | +300 | 25.00% | $30 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| William Byron | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Ryan Blaney | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Joey Logano | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
2024 Xfinity 500 predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 6 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Chevrolet to win (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Larson to win (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Denny Hamlin to win (+800 via bet365) ⭐⭐
How to bet NASCAR today at Martinsville
Martinsville Speedway has been a NASCAR staple since the very beginning with two races held annually at this historic track dating back to 1950.
At 0.526 miles, this track is the shortest in the Cup Series circuit and features a unique "paperclip" design with asphalt on the straightaways and concrete on the corners.
It's an unforgiving track that has given way to aggressive bump-and-run driving with the field so tightly compacted, which could lead to some chaos as the remaining playoff drivers fight for the final two spots in the Championship 4.
Hendrick seeks Martinsville sweep
Nine different drivers have won the last nine fall races at Martinsville, which hasn't seen a sweep since 2010. I suspect that'll change this time around.
Even without so many different winners, Hendrick Motorsports has won five of the last eight races at this short track - including a 1-2-3 finish from William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott in the Cook Out 400 to celebrate the racing team's 40th anniversary back in April.
Hendrick's 29 wins at Martinsville are the most by any team on any track, and all three of those top drivers who excelled in April are among the favorites to win again today.
Elliott is the outright favorite after finishing second in qualifying on Saturday to claim a spot in the front row today. He's just ahead of Byron, who starts third looking for his third win here, while Larson will begin ninth after winning the pole in April.
With Alex Bowman also qualifying seventh, it's the first time that Hendrick Motorsports has started with four drivers in the top 10. Given the team's success at this track before, I love its chances of sending another driver to Victory Lane.
I'm most partial to Larson, whose last four races here include one win, two runners-up, and a sixth-place finish. He's won twice as many races this year (six) as anyone else, and I like backing him in a virtual must-win spot to reach the Championship 4.
Hendrick Motorsports is dealing no better than +105 via Caesars to win this race, but you can bet Chevrolet as a manufacturer to win at +110 odds. That's my favorite bet on the board and one that has cashed in four of the last six races overall.
Can Hamlin stay alive in title chase?
The path to a championship is never easy for Hamlin, whose 54 career victories are the most by anyone without a championship.
This race marks his last chance to keep his title hopes alive in 2024. He'll start from the back (37th) after crashing in practice in another cruel twist of fate for a driver who has already won three races this year.
Fortunately for Hamlin, he's been a dominant force on short tracks and especially at Martinsville, where his five career wins lead all active drivers. He hasn't won here since 2015, though he's led 1,184 laps since taking that checkered flag.
Also working in Hamlin's favor is the new tire compound that Goodyear is introducing for today's race. It's supposed to be even softer than the option tire used at North Wilkesboro and Richmond (which will be the right-side standard for this race).
High tire wear often leads to more passing opportunities and dramatic shifts in track position as well as an extra emphasis on strategy - all good signs for the veteran Hamlin as he tries to work his way to the front of the pack.
I still think a Hendrick driver will ultimately win this race, but with the volatility of NASCAR races, it always helps to diversify your bet slip. And I'd hate to enter raceday without some stake in the No. 11.
Will we see another NASCAR overtime?
We went another week without an overtime finish, though we've still been treated to extra racing in nine of the last 15 races (60%).
That's why I'm still targeting the +200 odds via Caesars for another late caution today, especially at a short track like Martinsville that encourages physical racing.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the most aggressive finishes of the entire season with so much at stake for the remaining playoff drivers. And it only takes one incident in the final five or so laps to bring out the yellow flag and send this race to overtime.
The spring race at Martinsville needed 415 laps to crown a winner - 15 more than scheduled - and a similar outcome today would turn a $10 bet into a $20 profit.
NASCAR long shots today at Martinsville
The list of previous winners for this race is dominated by former champions and future Hall of Famers. That doesn't exactly make it conducive to long shots.
Still, with the new tire compound and high likelihood for cautions potentially leading to extra chaos today, here are a few drivers I'm targeting at BetMGM:
Chase Briscoe (+2000)
Briscoe turned a strong qualifying into the fourth spot in the starting grid today, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's running near the front all day long.
The No. 14 has finished in the top 10 in five consecutive races at Martinsville - one of three drivers to accomplish that - with top-five finishes in two of his last three. His average finish in that stretch (7.4) is also the fourth-best in the field.
He's tied for the eighth-longest odds at BetMGM, where a winning $10 bet would return a $200 profit.
Alex Bowman (+3000)
Bowman isn't competing for a title anymore after his controversial exit in the Round of 16, but he's still a former Martinsville winner after claiming the fall race in 2021.
He finished eighth in the spring race here and should have an advantage driving for Hendrick Motorsports, which has dominated here over the years. Another victory for Bowman would turn a $10 bet into a $300 profit.
Bubba Wallace (+5000)
Last weekend, 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick celebrated in Victory Lane after a thrilling finish at Homestead. Could Wallace join him with a surprise win this week?
The No. 23 has never won at Martinsville, but he did finish fourth here in the spring, which marked his fourth straight finish in the top 11 at this track.
Wallace has three top-10 finishes in the last six weeks even without playoff stakes, and a win today would turn a $10 bet into a $500 profit.
Best NASCAR long shots at Martinsville
- Chase Briscoe (+2000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Alex Bowman (+3000 via BetMGM) ⭐
- Bubba Wallace (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐
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Best NASCAR prop bets at Martinsville
- Over 4.5 Chevrolets in top 10 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Ryan Blaney top Ford (+115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Larson top three (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Race to go to overtime (+200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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Xfinity 500 past winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2021 | Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2019 | Martin Truex Jr. | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2017 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2015 | Jeff Gordon | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2014 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Hendrick Motorsports |
How to watch NASCAR at Martinsville: Xfinity 500
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 3 at 2 p.m. ET
- Track: Martinsville Speedway (Ridgeway, Va.)
- Length: 0.526 miles (500 laps, 263 total miles)
- How to watch: NBC
- Defending winner: Ryan Blaney
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