Mercury vs. Sky Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bets: Aug. 3

The Phoenix Mercury are poised to break out of their slump on the road tonight at 6 p.m. ET (WNBA League Pass) when they take on the struggling Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena.

My Mercury vs. Sky prediction expects Alyssa Thomas to bolster Phoenix's WNBA championship odds by leading it past a Chicago team down Angel Reese.

🔮 Mercury vs. Sky prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury (-900 via BetMGM) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -12.5 (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 166.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Mercury vs. Sky?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-900 via BetMGM)

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Chicago has lost seven straight games and owns the second-worst average point differential in the WNBA (minus-10.4). It looks like things will continue to fall for the Sky tonight against a Mercury team craving a bounce-back game after two straight losses. Chicago is without Reese and Ariel Atkins, its two leading scorers. Given how this team has looked during its losing streak, it seems improbable that it will get back on track against a Mercury team that beat the Sky by 21 earlier in the season. I'm projecting an 86-70 win for Phoenix as part of my Mercury vs. Sky prediction. 

💰 Mercury vs. Sky best bet & WNBA predictions

🪐 Mercury -12.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -130 via Caesars ($10 to win $7.69)

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Winning a road game by 13-plus is a big ask for a team that's in the middle of a 1-5 stretch, but there are few better squads for the Mercury to find their groove against again than the Sky. During Chicago's seven-game skid, it's losing by an average of 90 to 69, with six of its losses being by double digits and five of them being by 15 or more points.

Chicago sits second-last in the W in both offensive rating (98.2) and defensive rating (111.6), and without Reese and Atkins, it could be in trouble on offense. Those two combined for 28.1 of Chicago's 76.7 points per game, which are the second-fewest in the league. That should help take pressure off a Mercury team that's known much more for its offense than defense.

Phoenix is top six in the league in points per game (83.4), offensive rating (105.5), 3-pointers (9.4), and assists (20.7). Led by Thomas and Kahleah Copper, Mercury should light up a Chicago defense that's allowing the highest 3-point percentage (37.1%) in the W and the third-highest 2-point percentage (49.9%).

The Sky have failed to cover in all seven games during their losing streak, and tonight doesn't look like it will be any different.

👀 Best player prop for Mercury vs. Sky

⬆️ Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -125 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8)

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While Napheesa Collier is the runaway MVP favorite, Thomas (+750) is the only player with odds shorter than +5000 to bring home the league's top honor. She continues to be ageless at 33 years old and ranks first in the league in assists per game (9.0) and fourth in rebounds (8.4).

Thomas has topped 17.5 combined rebounds and assists in four of her last five games, and can again tonight against a Chicago squad that allows the second-most assists per game (21.6) and is down its top rebounder (Reese).

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How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

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Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

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