Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Playoffs Semifinals, Game 2
The Minnesota Lynx will aim to take a 2-0 series lead over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2 at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday at the Target Center (ESPN). My Mercury vs. Lynx prediction expects Minnesota to do just that.
Despite a slow start, the Lynx took control in the second half of their 82-69 win on Sunday. I expect a better effort at the start, which is why I’m willing to lay the points on a 7.5-point spread for Tuesday’s WNBA picks.
🏀 Mercury vs. Lynx prediction
WNBA expert picks for Tuesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Lynx ML (-355 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Lynx -7.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 158.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Mercury vs. Lynx preview & best bet
🐆 Lynx -7.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Lynx got off to a slow start in Game 1, but they demonstrated their dominance in the second half with a 20-point advantage to cover the 9.5-point spread. Assuming they come out focused, I don’t see why the Lynx can’t cover this spread now that it’s dropped by two points.
I have two crucial arguments for laying the points with Minnesota for my Mercury vs. Lynx prediction:
- The Lynx’s struggles on Sunday came on the defensive end.
- Minnesota has been an impressive first-half team all year.
The Lynx gave up 47 points in the first half of Game 1, which feels like a blip for the best defensive team in the league. I know this because they held the Mercury to 22 points over the final two quarters.
Minnesota also has a knack for fast starts, especially at home. The Lynx led the league with a first-half net rating of +17.6 at home during the regular season, which was 2.5 points better than anyone else.
I’ll take a discounted spread in Game 2 to back the best team in the league.
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💰 Best Mercury vs. Lynx player prop bet
⬆️ Kayla McBride over 14.5 points (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Courtney Williams was the hero from Game 1, but Minnesota guard Kayla McBride had a strong outing as well. She scored 21 points on 6-of-17 shooting, marking the second time she’s cleared 14.5 points in three playoff games.
With Phoenix’s defense focused on slowing down Napheesa Collier, this is a series that McBride has to deliver offensively. Fortunately, she’s good at doing that in big games, averaging 15.3 points and clearing this mark seven times last postseason.
📊 Mercury vs. Lynx odds: Sept. 23
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Mercury vs. Lynx betting odds analysis
The Lynx began as 8.5-point favorites, but the line has dropped to 7.5 at most of our best sportsbooks. I think that’s created a buying opportunity on the best team in the league, as I’d play this spread at anything below three possessions. The total hasn’t moved since opening at 158.5.
🔢 Mercury vs. Lynx stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Mercury (27-7) | Statistic (per game) | Lynx (34-10) |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 | Net rating | +12.1 |
| 103.6 | Offensive rating | 109.5 |
| 100.4 | Defensive rating | 97.5 |
| 82.8 | Points | 86.1 |
| 80.1 | Points allowed | 76.7 |
| 34.7 | Rebounds | 34.2 |
| 20.9 | Assists | 23.3 |
| 13.5 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 43.3 | FG% | 47.2 |
| 34 | 3PT% | 37.8 |
📺 Mercury vs. Lynx game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 23
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Center (Minneapolis, MN)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ Mercury vs. Lynx FAQs
Who is favored to win Mercury vs. Lynx?
The Lynx are -375 favorites to defeat the Mercury in Game 2.
What is the spread for Mercury vs. Lynx?
Minnesota is an 8.5-point favorite against Phoenix at home.
What is the Over/Under for Mercury vs. Lynx?
The total for Tuesday’s Mercury-Lynx matchup is 158.5.
What are the best bets for Mercury vs. Lynx?
My best Mercury vs. Lynx bets are Minnesota -7.5 and Kayla McBride Over 14.5 points.
When is the Mercury vs. Lynx game?
The game begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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