Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Playoffs Round 2, Game 1
Points could be at a premium in Game 1 between Phoenix and Minnesota, something I’m factoring into the equation as I put together my Mercury vs. Lynx prediction. Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday at Target Center (ESPN).
For my WNBA picks, I expect Mercury All-Star Satou Sabally to be one of the engines of Phoenix’s offensive attack, and I like the Over on one of her player props to reflect that.
Mercury vs. Lynx expert picks & predictions
WNBA expert picks for Sunday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Lynx (-310 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Lynx -7 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 158.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Mercury vs. Lynx preview & best bet
Under 158.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The Mercury went under this total in all three games of their first-round series against the New York Liberty. Phoenix struggled offensively in the series, shooting just 38.8% from the field and 29.7% from 3-point range.
Minnesota was by far the league’s best defensive team in the regular season, and both teams finished in the top three in opposing points in the paint per game during the campaign. Minnesota and Phoenix also went under this total in all four of their head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
A $10 bet on the Under would provide a profit of $9.09. The -110 odds from one of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel, have an implied probability of 52.38%.
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Best Mercury vs. Lynx player prop bet
Satou Sabally Over 14.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Satou Sabally registered her first career playoff double-double in Game 3 against New York, putting up 23 points and 12 rebounds. She averaged 19 points and 9.5 rebounds over the final two games of the series after struggling in Game 1.
Sabally elevated her game against the Lynx during the regular season, averaging 20.5 points on 44.4% shooting in a pair of meetings.
She averaged 15.7 points on 14 shot attempts in the first round. I anticipate similar usage in this series, and think Sabally should be able to go over this total if she shoots closer to her regular-season numbers (40.4%), compared to the 31% clip she managed in the first round.
A $10 wager on Sabally’s Over nets out a profit of $8.70 at DraftKings. The -115 odds have an implied probability of 53.49%.
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Mercury vs. Lynx odds: Game 1
WNBA odds update live in real time.
Mercury vs. Lynx betting odds analysis
The Lynx opened as the 6.5-point home favorites, with the line being offered as high as 7.5 at some of the best sports betting apps. Considering Minnesota’s 3-1 record against Phoenix during the regular season, and the Mercury’s offensive struggles in the opening round of the playoffs, I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota closes as an 8-point favorite or perhaps even a bit higher than that.
🔢 Mercury vs. Lynx stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Mercury (27-17) | Statistic (per game) | Lynx (34-10) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Net rating | 12.1 |
| 103.6 | Offensive rating | 109.5 |
| 100.4 | Defensive rating | 97.5 |
| 82.8 | Points | 86.1 |
| 80.1 | Points allowed | 76.7 |
| 34.7 | Rebounds | 34.2 |
| 20.9 | Assists | 23.3 |
| 13.5 | Turnovers | 13.0 |
| 43.3% | FG% | 47.2% |
| 34.0% | 3PT% | 37.8% |
Mercury vs. Lynx game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: ESPN
Mercury vs. Lynx FAQs
Who is favored to win Mercury vs. Lynx?
Minnesota is a -310 moneyline favorite to defeat Phoenix in Game 1.
What is the spread for Mercury vs. Lynx?
The Lynx are a 7-point favorite against the Mercury for Game 1 on Sunday at Target Center.
What is the Over/Under for Mercury vs. Lynx?
The total for Sunday’s game between the Lynx and Mercury is 158.5.
What are the best bets for Mercury vs. Lynx?
My best bets for Sunday’s game between the Mercury and Lynx are Under 158.5 (-110) and Satou Sabally Over 14.5 points (-115).
When is the Mercury vs. Lynx game?
Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday (ESPN).
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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