Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction & Expert Picks: Tonight's WNBA Playoffs Round 2, Game 3
Tonight's WNBA action wraps up with a nightcap between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury, and my Lynx vs. Mercury prediction expects a second-straight defensive affair. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from PHX Arena in Phoenix.
It took overtime for Minnesota and Phoenix to cash the Over in Game 2, and my WNBA picks think the Under remains the correct play. There's something for Over bettors, too, as I back Napheesa Collier to carry the weight for the visitors.
Stay on top of tonight's early ation with Shane Jackson's Aces vs. Fever prediction.
🏀 Lynx vs. Mercury expert picks & predictions
WNBA expert picks for Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Lynx (-164 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Lynx -3.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 158.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Lynx vs. Mercury preview & best bet
⬇️ Under 158.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota and Phoenix have gone under this total in five of their six head-to-head meetings in 2025.
It took a three-point make with time running out in the fourth quarter by Phoenix’s Sami Whitcomb to force overtime, eventually facilitating the Over.
The Lynx allowed Phoenix to shoot 45.3% from the field in Game 2 after holding them to 41.3% from the field and 13% from three-point range in Game 1. I'm expecting more of the latter in Game 3 from Minnesota’s top-ranked defensive unit.
A winning $10 bet on the Under would provide a profit of $9.09. The -110 odds from one of the best sports betting apps, DraftKings, have an implied probability of 52.38%.
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💰 Best Lynx vs. Mercury player prop bet
⬆️ Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points (-108) ⭐⭐⭐
Collier has scored 24 points in two of her last three games. She’s averaging 21.5 points per game in four playoff contests despite struggling from three-point range (27.3%) and the free-throw line (71.4%).
I expect Collier to be an even bigger part of the offensive game plan in a hostile road environment.
If she can shoot a bit closer to her regular-season averages from behind the arc (40.3%) and at the free-throw line (90.6%), Collier will be in a great spot to go Over her points prop.
A winning $10 wager on Collier’s Over will yield a $9.26 profit at FanDuel. The -108 odds have an implied probability of 51.92%.
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📊 Lynx vs. Mercury odds: Sept. 26
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Lynx vs. Mercury betting odds analysis
The Lynx opened as the 4-point road betting favorite, with the line currently being offered between -3.5 and -4.5 at some of the best sports betting apps. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is closer to -5 by the time the game rolls around, and I don't recommend playing it beyond -4.5. The total has stayed steady at 158.5.
🔢 Lynx vs. Mercury stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Lynx (34-10) | Statistic (per game) | Mercury (27-17) |
|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | Net rating | 3.2 |
| 109.5 | Offensive rating | 103.6 |
| 97.5 | Defensive rating | 100.4 |
| 86.1 | Points | 82.8 |
| 76.7 | Points allowed | 80.1 |
| 34.2 | Rebounds | 34.7 |
| 23.3 | Assists | 20.9 |
| 13.0 | Turnovers | 13.5 |
| 47.2% | FG% | 43.3% |
| 37.8% | 3PT% | 34.0% |
❓ Lynx vs. Mercury FAQs
Who is favored to win Lynx vs. Mercury?
Minnesota is the -164 moneyline betting favorite to defeat Phoenix in Game 3.
What is the spread for Lynx vs. Mercury?
The Lynx are the 3.5-point betting favorite against the Mercury for Game 3 on Friday at PHX Arena.
What is the Over/Under for Lynx vs. Mercury?
The total for Friday’s game between the Liberty and Mercury is 158.5.
What are the best bets for Lynx vs. Mercury?
My best bets for Friday’s game between the Mercury and Lynx are Under 158.5 (-110) and Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points (-108).
When is the Lynx vs. Mercury game?
Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday (ESPN).
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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