Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 1 Odds & Expert Picks

Las Vegas is a 2.5-point betting favorite in WNBA Finals Game 1 against Phoenix, and my Mercury vs. Aces prediction expects the home side to continue its dominance over the visitors.

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Friday night at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

My WNBA Finals prediction features Aces star guard Jackie Young continuing her excellent postseason campaign, as I’m targeting the Over on one of her player props.

🏀 Mercury vs. Aces predictions: Game 1

WNBA Finals expert picks for Game 1; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Aces -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 160 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Jackie Young Over 16.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

✅ Mercury vs. Aces expert pick: Game 1

See all of our WNBA picks from our experts for the 2025 WNBA Finals.

♠️ Aces -2.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

The Aces went 3-1 against Phoenix during the regular season, including an emphatic 83-61 victory in their last meeting in Las Vegas on Aug. 21.

Phoenix is the more rested team entering Game 1 but will have to contend with an Aces club that is an impressive 21-6 at home in 2025.

A winning $10 bet on Aces -2.5 would provide a profit of $8.70. The -115 odds from one of the best sports betting apps, BetMGM, have an implied probability of 53.49%.

💰 Best Mercury vs. Aces player prop bet: Game 1

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Jackie Young Over 16.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

I’m a little puzzled as to why this player prop is this low. Young can sometimes fly a bit under the radar playing alongside a ball-dominant star like A'ja Wilson.

However, she’s averaging 20.5 points per game on 54.1% shooting from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and 93.8% from the free-throw line in the postseason. Young has also been strong at home, where she is averaging 19.2 points per game.

With the Mercury rightfully making Wilson their primary focus on the defensive end, I expect Young to have more space and opportunities to attack the rim and get her excellent jump shot off. 

A winning $10 wager on Young’s Over will provide a $9.09 profit at DraftKings. The -110 odds have an implied probability of 52.38%.

📊 Mercury vs. Aces odds: Game 1

Latest WNBA Finals odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Aces: WNBA Finals Game 1

• Date: Friday, Oct. 3
• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Paradise, Nevada)
• TV: ESPN