Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: Tonight's WNBA Finals Game 3 Odds & Expert Picks
The Las Vegas Aces bring a 2-0 series lead over the Phoenix Mercury into Game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight, but things might change tonight. The Mercury have been excellent at home in the postseason, and my Aces vs. Mercury prediction expects that trend to keep on rolling when the action at PHX Arena gets underway at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
That WNBA Finals prediction backs All-Star forward Alyssa Thomas to lead the charge on her home court, and I'm targeting her points prop as my favorite Aces vs. Mercury player prop bet.
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π Aces vs. Mercury predictions: Game 3
WNBA Finals expert picks for Game 3; odds subject to change.
- Game pick: Mercury (-170 via BetMGM) ββ
- Over/Under pick: Under 164 (-110 via Caesars) βββ
- Player prop bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points (-120 via FanDuel) βββ
β Aces vs. Mercury expert pick: Game 3
See all of our WNBA picks from our experts for the 2025 WNBA Finals.
βοΈ Mercury -3.5 (-118) βββ
The Mercury are 3-1 on their home floor during the postseason, including taking both games in Phoenix en route to their second-round upset of the Minnesota Lynx.
The Aces are 2-1 on the road in the playoffs, but they weren't the same team away from Las Vegas during the regular season.
A winning $10 bet on the Mercury at -3.5 would provide a profit of $8.47. The -118 odds from FanDuel, one of the best sports betting apps, come with an implied probability of 54.13%.
π° Best Aces vs. Mercury player prop bet: Game 3
Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
π₯ Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points (-120) ββββ
Thomas is averaging 19.5 points per game across four contests on her home floor during the postseason.
The Aces have been vulnerable on the interior, allowing 38 points per outing in the paint during the playoffs. They also endured regular-season struggles in that department, finishing 10th of 13 WNBA clubs.
Thomas has scored 83.9% of her points from inside the paint during the postseason. I expect her to be relentless while attempting to get to the rim.
A winning $10 wager on Thomasβ Over would lead to a $8.33 profit at FanDuel. The -120 odds come with an implied probability of 54.55%.
π Aces vs. Mercury betting insights
Here are some betting insights prior to Game 3 between the Aces and Mercury.
- The spread has shifted from the opening number of -2.5 in favor of Phoenix to -3.5 at the best sports betting sites
- The moneyline is similarly moving toward the Mercury, going from an opening line of -143 to -180
- The total has mostly been steady so far, though some books that offer the best sportsbook promos have moved slightly from 163.5 to 164
π Aces vs. Mercury odds: Game 3
Latest WNBA Finals odds updated live in real time.
πΊ How to watch Aces vs. Mercury: WNBA Finals Game 3
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 8
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: PHX Arena (Phoenix, AZ)
- TV: ESPN
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