Fever vs. Mercury Prediction Tonight: WNBA Odds & Best Bets for Aug. 7

If you liked last week's matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever game, you'll love the rematch tonight at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video), as I'm expecting a similar outcome with my Fever vs. Mercury prediction.

The Fever have managed to withstand the absence of star guard Caitlin Clark and remain in the hunt by the latest WNBA championship odds, but that could be tough tonight in this rematch at PHX Arena.

🔮 Fever vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury (-235 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -5.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 170.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Fever vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-235 via FanDuel)

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These two teams played last week in a high-scoring duel that ended in a 107-101 win for the Fever at home. But with Satou Sabally looking like her old self and Alyssa Thomas on an MVP-like tear through the league right now, Phoenix should be capable of avenging that loss on its home court.

Indiana's defense has been suspect lately, coming off a 100-91 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks and having given up 98-plus points in four of its last eight. The Mercury's 3-point shooting and Thomas' facilitating should be the difference. My Fever vs. Mercury prediction has Phoenix winning by a score of 91-84.

💰 Fever vs. Mercury best bet & WNBA predictions

🚀 Over 170.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)

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Both of these teams want to play fast, and both have the offensive talent to light up the scoreboard. The Fever and Mercury are tied for the second-highest pace rating in the WNBA (78.9), and we saw that on full display when they played last week and flew past the 167.5 game total to combine for 208 points. 

In that matchup, Indiana couldn't stop Thomas or Kahleah Copper, who totaled 54 combined points. And now with Sabally returning to form following a 23-point performance on Monday, Phoenix should light up a Fever defense that ranks in the back half of the league in points allowed per game (81.4) and defensive rating (103.2).

However, in that same game, Steph White's team completely exposed the Mercury's perimeter defense and went 11-for-24 (45.8%) from three. That was even with Kelsey Mitchell having a down game, which seems unlikely this time around with her coming off a 34-point game on Monday that jumped her up to fourth in the league in points per game (20.0).

The Mercury have allowed 89-plus points in their last four games against teams with winning records, putting this Over in good shape.

👀 Best player prop for Fever vs. Mercury

🪐 Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +100 via bet365 ($10 to win $10)

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The 33-year-old Thomas continues to etch her name into the WNBA record books after recording a triple-double in each of her last two games; she now has a WNBA-record 14 in her career (plus four more in the playoffs).

And even when she's not putting up a triple-double, she's still picking up boards and apples with ease.

Thomas leads the league in assists per game (9.1) and sits third in rebounds per game (8.6), and she's gone Over 17.5 combined in six of her last seven games. That includes totaling 22 rebounds and assists against Indiana last week.

🏀 Fever vs. Mercury odds

Live updated WNBA odds from our best sports betting sites.

🤔 Fever vs. Mercury odds analysis

Our WNBA odds can give us some insight to where the betting public is leaning for tonight's action. 

A majority (55%) of the tickets on the point spread have come in on the visitors as the day as gone on, with the line as moved from Phoenix -5.5 to as short as Phoenix -3.5 at our best sports betting apps.

The public expects an offensive outburst as well tonight, with the Over seeing the bulk of the tickets (62%). That's resulted in the line moving from 170.5 to as high as 173.

💡 Expert WNBA predictions today

• Dream vs. Sky prediction
• Sun vs. Sparks prediction
• Fever vs. Mercury prediction

❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

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