Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Playoffs Round 2, Game 1
After thrilling victories in Game 3 of their respective Round 1 matchups, I make my Fever vs. Aces prediction as the two will meet in Game 1 of the semifinals at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at Michelob ULTRA Arena on ABC.
Indiana is more competent than anyone expected, while Las Vegas might not be as formidable as it demonstrated during the final weeks of the regular season. As a result, I’m taking the points for Sunday’s WNBA picks in a game where the Aces are favored by 9.5.
🏀 Fever vs. Aces prediction
WNBA expert picks for Sunday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Aces ML (-450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Fever +9.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 162.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Fever vs. Aces preview & best bet
🥵 Fever +9.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My theory entering Round 1 was that the Aces’ 16-game win streak to end the regular season had led to a market overcorrection. That’s why I took the points with the Storm in all three games, covering the spread in the final two contests.
While the Aces are on track to reach the WNBA Finals, I disagree with their current standing in the market. They are being priced within 2.1 points of the Minnesota Lynx based on the updated market power rankings.
The WNBA’s net ratings help shed further insight on my point. The Aces ranked fifth in the league with a net rating of +3.9 during the regular season, which actually trailed the Fever’s +4.5 clip.
Sure, the Aces have been extremely impressive since early August. But their Round 1 matchup against the Seattle Storm highlighted some concerns, as they escaped with a 74-73 victory in Game 3. The Fever, meanwhile, are playing with house money after becoming the first lower seed to win a Round 1 series in three years.
Given the quick turnaround from Thursday’s Game 3s, I’ll take the points with Indiana for my Fever vs. Aces prediction in Sunday’s matinee matchup. This line is as low as +9 at the rest of our best sports betting sites.
💰 Best Fever vs. Aces player prop bet
⬆️ Aliyah Boston Over 3.5 assists (-140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This will have to be a big Aliyah Boston series, which is why my Fever vs. Aces player prop is targeting her in Game 1. Her assist prop offers the most value, particularly if you shop in FanDuel’s alternate market for a -140 offering on her recording four-plus assists.
Boston scores three fewer points on the road than at home this year, partly because she averages 4.2 assists in away contests. She cleared this mark in both road matchups in Round 1, recording five assists in Game 1 and six dimes in Game 3.
Given A’ja Wilson will be defending her on Sunday, Boston might opt for more kick-out passes rather than challenge this year’s co-DPOY at the rim.
📊 Fever vs. Aces odds: Sept. 21
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Fever vs. Aces betting odds analysis
The Aces opened as the 7.5-point home betting favorite, with some of the best sports betting apps offering them as high as -8.5.
The Aces start as 9-point favorites (-9.5) at BetMGM, but I expect that line to drop a bit before Game 1. The Fever are a popular team to bet on, even without Caitlin Clark. Plus, this line is too high and worth grabbing at +9 or better anyway.
The total begins at 162.5, but I could see the Over climbing before tipoff.
🔢 Fever vs. Aces stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Fever (27-21) | Statistic (per game) | Aces (32-15) |
| +4.5 | Net rating | +3.9 |
| 106.2 | Offensive rating | 105.9 |
| 101.8 | Defensive rating | 101.9 |
| 84.9 | Points | 83.6 |
| 81.5 | Points allowed | 80.7 |
| 33.4 | Rebounds | 33.5 |
| 20.6 | Assists | 19.6 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 45.6 | FG% | 43.9 |
| 34.6 | 3PT% | 35.1 |
📺 Fever vs. Aces game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Michaelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
- How to watch: ABC
❓ Fever vs. Aces FAQs
Who is favored to win Fever vs. Aces?
The Aces are -450 favorites to defeat the Fever in Game 1, giving them an 81.82% implied probability.
What is the spread for Fever vs. Aces?
Las Vegas is a 9.5-point favorite against Indiana on Sunday.
What is the Over/Under for Fever vs. Aces?
The total for Sunday’s Fever-Aces matchup is 162.5.
What are the best bets for Fever vs. Aces?
I like Indiana +9.5 and Aliyah Boston Over 3.5 assists (-140) as my best bets for Sunday’s Fever vs. Aces matchup.
When is the Fever vs. Aces game?
Game 1 of Fever vs. Aces will start at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday on ABC.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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