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WNBA Championship Picks & Predictions: Aces are Favorites to Win Another Title

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 16, 2023 5:40 PM EDT • 3 min 9 sec read.

Kelsey Plum of the Las Vegas Aces brings the ball up the court as we look at our WNBA Championship picks and predictions
Kelsey Plum of the Las Vegas Aces brings the ball up the court against the Connecticut Sun in the third quarter of Game 2 of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs finals. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP.

The Las Vegas Aces won their first title in franchise history last year, but there hasn't been a back-to-back WNBA champion since 2001 and 2002. Read on for our best WNBA Championship picks and predictions based on the top WNBA odds for the 2023 season.

In an attempt to become the first back-to-back champion in the WNBA since the Los Angeles Sparks accomplished the feat over 20 years ago, the Las Vegas Aces bolstered an elite roster in the offseason by adding Candace Parker. But the Aces aren't the only superteam, as the New York Liberty have just as loaded of a team entering the 2023 season.

Building a WNBA futures portfolio will likely involve at least one of these two squads, especially with the best sports betting apps offering an Aces or Liberty vs. the field market in the WNBA Championship odds entering the season.

The question is, are we betting on Las Vegas or New York?

Here are our best WNBA Championship picks and predictions (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

WNBA Championship picks

Las Vegas Aces (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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So, I picked the Aces over the Liberty. And this is honestly only a four-star pick because of the price.

Las Vegas won its preseason game against New York, which does speak to the continuity that the defending champs have. There is a very real chance the Liberty could get off to a slower start, and we could get a better number on them one day. But I don't see the best sportsbooks ever offering us a discount on the Aces.

Power ratings wise, I'm going to have the Aces comfortably ahead of the Liberty to start the season. Las Vegas has the best offense in the league after averaging 90.4 points per game last year. The big concern with the Aces last summer was their depth, and they made steps to improve that by adding Parker to the mix.

Defending your throne is hard. But a lineup featuring A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Parker has to be as equipped as anyone to handle having a target on their back.

Connecticut Sun (+4000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

The Sun are not the same team that lost to the Aces in the WNBA Finals last year, particularly after losing Jonquel Jones to the Liberty. Even without Jones, a frontcourt combination of Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones should win a lot of games in the regular season.

Regular-season success is obviously the first step to having value come postseason time. The Sun haven't finished outside the top-three in the regular season since 2016, and have reached at least the semifinal round in each of the last four postseasons. Perhaps a coaching change to Stephanie White is just what this team needs to get over that final hurdle.

Since it does seem unlikely that the Sun will capture the title from the Aces or Liberty, the better futures bet on this team might actually be for Connecticut to win the Commissioner's Cup. FanDuel is offering a market for this regular-season trophy, in which the Sun are priced at 22/1 to win it.

The Aces, who claimed the Commissioner's Cup last year, are the betting favorites at +125.

Chicago Sky (+5500 via Caesars) ⭐

You will notice this is a one-star pick, so my confidence level is extremely low here. But the Sky are two years removed from winning a title as a No. 6 seed, and this price is too long for a team with as much pedigree as they have.

Chicago was ranked fourth in The Athletic's preseason rankings, which puts this team behind the Aces, Liberty, and Washington Mystics. The betting market seems to disagree, likely due to the fact the Sky lost Courtney Vandersloot (Liberty) and Parker (Aces) to the superteams in the offseason.

But there is still plenty of talent on this roster, especially after the Sky mortgaged some of the future to land Marina Mabrey to add another weapon around Kahleah Copper. This is a franchise motivated to win, so expect Chicago to remain aggressive throughout the summer.

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.