Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Saturday, Sept. 19
As the penultimate weekend of the regular season in Major League Baseball begins, my best NRFI bets today include several safe wagers on some starting pitchers who have been fantastic in the second half.
Boston Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle made history with an immaculate first inning in his last start, and Los Angeles Angels southpaw Reid Detmers has been one of the top pitchers in the league down the stretch. The two anchor my NRFI picks of the day, and I add a YRFI play on a game at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 19
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Rays NRFI (-125 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.80u | The Red Sox have rolled in Payton Tolle’s last 12 starts |
| Blue Jays vs. Rangers NRFI (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.85u | Jose Soriano has excellent career numbers against Texas from the old AL West rivalry |
| Mariners vs. Rockies YRFI (-135 via bet365) | 1u → 0.74u | Bryce Miller has an ERA north of 8.00 over the last month |
| Twins vs. Angels NRFI (-143 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.70u | Reid Detmers is on the verge of a strikeout milestone |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.09 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Red Sox vs. Rays (4:10 ET)
- Payton Tolle (3.02 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (4.67 ERA)
- NRFI records: Red Sox (74-80) vs. Rays (81-72)
Payton Tolle is unbeaten in his last 12 starts while logging a 2.62 ERA and 12.1 K/9. More recently over his last seven, he has pitched to a 2.36 ERA over 42 innings, while holding opponents to a .189 average and .561 OPS.
It doesn’t get much better from Tolle from his previous first inning, when he threw the 124th immaculate inning in MLB history.
It’s up to Freddy Peralta to match zeros, and he is amid a four-start winning streak while pitching to a 0.78 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, and 17:4 K:BB rate.
📡 SBR Edge: Can't touch Tolle's fastball
When throwing his four-seam fastball, Tolle ranks fifth in opponents' average, seventh in slugging, sixth in wOBA, third in xwOBA, and third in whiff rate.
🔥 More NRFI/YRFI picks today
Blue Jays vs. Rangers (7:05 ET)
- Jose Soriano (3.56 ERA) vs. Cal Quantrill (2.90 ERA)
- NRFI records: Blue Jays (78-76) vs. Rangers (64-90)
Jose Soriano’s best numbers from the old AL West rivalry from his time with the Angels are against the Astros and Rangers. Against the latter, he owns a 2.84 ERA and has only allowed one home run in 38 innings. That includes an earlier start this year where he allowed just two hits over six innings, good for a 0.67 WHIP.
Cal Quantrill may not have the arsenal that teammate Jacob deGrom has, but he has been just as effective. Quantrill experienced back tightness after his last start, but I remain encouraged by his pitch count of 55 pitches through five innings, his fewest through five innings in his career.
Mariners vs. Rockies (8:10 ET)
- Bryce Miller (4.19 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (5.27 ERA)
- YRFI records: Mariners (85-69) vs. Rockies (94-60)
Bryce Miller has been anything but an innings-eater for Seattle of late, and has easily been the weakest link of a struggling rotation in the second half. Miller has only pitched six innings once in his last 10 starts, and has allowed 25 runs in his previous 28 ⅓ innings. He has also allowed a 2.16 HR/9 rate and a home run on 21.1% of fly balls since the start of August, and that will get him in trouble in the altitude of Coors Field.
Colorado has cashed the YRFI in each of its last three games, and I'm backing it to do so again at hitter-friendly Coors Field despite its team .229 batting average and .313 wOBA in the first inning.
Twins vs. Angels (9:38 ET)
- Joe Ryan (3.84 ERA) vs. Reid Detmers (3.36 ERA)
- NRFI records: Twins (61-93) vs. Angels (76-78)
The last time Reid Detmers toed the rubber, the YRFI cashed, but it was no fault of his as he pitched a clean first inning. Detmers pitched to a 1.37 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 in his first 10 starts since the All-Star Break. And with a strikeout in the first frame, he would become the 12th pitcher (and third southpaw) to record a 200-strikeout season with the Angels.
On the other side, Joe Ryan has held current Angels hitters to a combined .200/.212/.289 slash line and no home runs in 65 at-bats. He just needs to be careful with Zach Neto in his first at-bat, as the shortstop has a 1.091 OPS against him.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Red Sox-Rays NRFI
- Blue Jays-Rangers NRFI
- Mariners-Rockies YRFI
- Twins-Angels NRFI
Best odds: +884 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.88u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
