Mercury vs. Wings Prediction: WNBA Picks for Today, Sept. 19
The Dallas Wings will try to extend their five-game win streak as I make my Mercury vs. Wings prediction for today's showdown. Tipoff is 1 p.m. ET at the College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, on CBS.
Dallas, an 8.5-point favorite, is trying to improve its position in the WNBA championship odds playoff bracket. Phoenix, meanwhile, has nothing to play for. But has the market given the Wings too much respect?
🏀 Mercury vs. Wings prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury +8.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 0.5u → 0.44u | Phoenix isn't motivated to lose after trading away its draft pick. |
| Under 173.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.91u | Dallas has gone Under in seven of its past eight games. |
| Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 assists (-156 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.64u | Paige Bueckers has cleared this line in six of her last nine games. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 1.99 units
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🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Wings?
I predict the Wings will win by eight points against the Mercury on Saturday. Dallas has been the best home team in the WNBA this year, leading the league with a +11.4 net rating. The Wings are 15-6 at home this year, which is tied with the Golden State Valkyries for the most such wins. Dallas should get the job done against Phoenix.
Score prediction: Wings 88, Mercury 80
💰 Mercury vs. Wings prediction & best bet
Under 173.5 (-110)
I'll take the Under in this matinee matchup, especially since the total is four points higher than it was in the previous head-to-head meetings. The total finished Under in the Wings' 85-70 win on June 11.
The Wings have played better defense of late. They haven't surrendered more than 78 points to an opponent during their five-game win streak. The total has finished Under in seven of Dallas' previous eight outings.
That's a sign of a young team figuring things out at just the right time. I like the Under at 172.5 or better.
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Wings player prop bet
Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 assists (-156)
This is a buy-low spot for Dallas guard Paige Bueckers, who dished just three assists in her first game back on Thursday. Her assist line is now just 5.5 ahead of a favorable matchup, so I'm willing to pay the vig on the Over.
Phoenix ranks 11th in assists allowed and has particularly struggled against opposing guards capable of making kick-out passes. The Mercury are 11th in defending spot-up shooters, per Props Madness.
That all bodes well for Bueckers, who has cleared this assist line six of her last nine outings. The last time she failed to clear her assist line, Bueckers followed it up with an 11-dime performance against the Portland Fire.
🚀 Mercury vs. Wings same-game parlay
Thanks to some uncorrelated wagers, my Mercury vs. Wings parlay has a juicy +575 payout at DraftKings. It's not as implausible as it might seem, however. The key to the Mercury staying within range is making this game more of a defensive battle. And they can do that by forcing the ball out of Bueckers' hands.
💵 Mercury vs. Wings SGP picks
- Mercury +8.5 (-115)
- Under 173.5 (-110)
- Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 assists (-156)
Best odds: +575 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.57u)
📊 Live Mercury vs. Wings odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Wings
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
- Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: College Park Center (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
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