Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: WNBA Picks for Friday, Sept. 18
My Liberty vs. Lynx prediction tackles a pivotal matchup ahead of tipoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday at the Target Center in Minneapolis on ION.
The Lynx, who are 6.5-point favorites, lead the WNBA championship odds picture as the No. 1 seed. But the Liberty need a win to climb from eighth and avoid a Round 1 matchup against Minnesota.
🏀 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty +6.5 (+100 via bet365) | 1u → 1u | The Liberty have covered the spread in each of their past three meetings with the Lynx. |
| Kayla McBride Under 20.5 points + rebounds (-118 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.85u | In 12 games since Napheesa Collier returned to the lineup, Kayla McBride has only cleared this line three times. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.85 units
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🏆 Who will win Liberty vs. Lynx?
I predict Minnesota will beat New York by five points in a playoff-seeding matchup. The Lynx, the best home team last year, are 14-6 with a +9.1 net rating at Target Center. Minnesota earned a 90-85 home win over New York on July 11, in which the spread closed at +5.5.
Score prediction: Lynx 91, Liberty 86
💰 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction & best bet
Liberty +6.5 (+100)
This game means more to the Liberty than the Lynx. Minnesota has a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed with four left to play, whereas New York is virtually in a three-way tie at the bottom of the bracket.
Given the Liberty's recent form, I think the spread is a point too high. New York is 7-3 across it past 10 games and has covered the spread in each of its past three head-to-head matchups with Minnesota.
The Liberty haven't been this big of an underdog to the Lynx since 2025. I'll buy the discount on a talented team.
🔥 Best Liberty vs. Lynx player prop bet
Kayla McBride Under 20.5 points + rebounds (-118)
Someone's statistical output had to suffer once Napheesa Collier returned to the lineup in late July. Minnesota guard Kayla McBride appears to be the answer.
McBride has played 12 games with Collier, averaging 17.9 points, two rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. All three numbers are down. Her usage rating has also dropped by 2.3%.
In those 12 games, McBride has only cleared this combo line three times. I'm comfortable betting that trend will continue, especially given my faith in the Liberty.
🚀 Liberty vs. Lynx same-game parlay
DraftKings is the only shop offering an Under for McBride's combo prop, so my decision to place this parlay there was made for me. But I decided to add Olivia Miles' alternate scoring line, as she attempts to make a late push in the MVP race. Miles has averaged 20.6 points across her past 10 outings.
💵 Liberty vs. Lynx SGP picks
- Liberty +6.5 (-108)
- Kayla McBride Under 20.5 points + rebounds (-118)
- Olivia Miles 18-plus points (-200)
Best odds: +370 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.37u)
📊 Live Liberty vs. Lynx odds
📺 How to watch Liberty vs. Lynx
- Date: Friday, Sept. 18
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- TV: ION
- Streaming: WNBA League Pass
