Aces vs. Fever Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Playoffs Round 2, Game 3
The Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever square off in a pivotal Game 3, which is something I’m keeping in mind as I make my Aces vs. Fever prediction. Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Friday is 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
The series is tied up through two games, so the winner of Game 3 will have the edge in a best-of-five series. The Aces, who have the championship reputation, are the 4.5-point road betting favorite in what could be the matchup that decides which team will advance to the WNBA Finals. My WNBA picks side with the experience of Las Vegas.
🏀 Aces vs. Fever prediction
WNBA expert picks for Friday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Aces ML (-184 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Aces -4 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 162.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Aces vs. Fever preview & best bet
♠️ Aces -4 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It was tough to decide on my Aces vs. Fever prediction, as I like the Over (162.5) in a game that could feature more offense than the previous two nights. But I settled on laying the points once the spread dropped to -4, as the Aces have proven to be the better team when they are locked in.
Las Vegas flipped a switch with a 16-game win streak to close out the regular season, leading the league in net rating (+16.5) and offensive rating (114.7) over that span. In the postseason, the Aces have the best offensive rating (107.6) and second-best net rating (+8.2). For comparison, Indiana has a net rating of +0.7 in the playoffs.
The Aces, who have won two of the last three championships, understand the importance of Friday’s Game 3. That’s why I’m comfortable laying the points at -4 or better, as I project more than a point of value on this spread.
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💰 Best Aces vs. Fever player prop bet
🔥 Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 assists (-158) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
One of the reasons I’m confident in the Aces is that there is no point guard I trust more in this spot than Chelsea Gray. Even at 32 years old, Gray continues to deliver for the Aces.
Gray has averaged 7.4 assists per game this postseason, clearing this mark in four of her five contests. She’s averaging 6.8 assists in the playoffs since 2021.
I’ll be laddering Gray’s assist prop on Friday, with FanDuel offering +245 odds for eight-plus assists and +700 for double-digit dimes. But this Aces vs. Fever player prop needs to be the first leg.
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📊 Aces vs. Fever odds: Sept. 26
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Aces vs. Fever betting odds analysis
The Aces started as the 5.5-point betting favorite, but the line has dropped a full point (and as much as 1.5 at Caesars) due to 59% of the wagers being on the Fever. Even without Caitlin Clark, Indiana is typically the more popular side.
Speaking of market interest, the Over will likely climb before tipoff. This line has dropped a point since opening at 163.5, but don’t be surprised if it climbs back up with 63% of bets on the Over.
🔢 Aces vs. Fever stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Aces (33-16) | Statistic (per game) | Fever (27-22) |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 | Net rating | +4.5 |
| 105.9 | Offensive rating | 106.2 |
| 101.9 | Defensive rating | 101.8 |
| 83.6 | Points | 84.9 |
| 80.7 | Points allowed | 81.5 |
| 33.5 | Rebounds | 33.4 |
| 19.6 | Assists | 20.6 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 43.9 | FG% | 45.6 |
| 35.1 | 3PT% | 34.6 |
📺 Aces vs. Fever game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 26
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: ESPN2
❓ Aces vs. Fever FAQs
Who is favored to win Aces vs. Fever?
The Aces are -190 favorites to defeat the Fever in Game 3.
What is the spread for Aces vs. Fever?
Las Vegas is a 4.5-point favorite against Indiana on Friday.
What is the Over/Under for Aces vs. Fever?
The total for Friday’s Aces-Fever matchup is 162.5.
What are the best bets for Aces vs. Fever?
I’m backing Las Vegas -4 and Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 assists as my best bets for Aces vs. Fever.
When is the Aces vs. Fever game?
Game 3 of Aces vs. Fever will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday on ESPN2.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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