Will Donald Trump Invade Venezuela in 2026? | Prediction Market Odds for U.S. Military Action

Weeks of posturing and aggressive talk escalated to a highly coordinated and intricately planned military operation in Venezuela, and now we're left to wonder: Will Donald Trump invade Venezuela in 2026?

He's already made a significant move with the capture and extradition of Nicolas Maduro. The now-removed president is being held in Brooklyn, and he's since pleaded not guilty to drug-trafficking and terrorism charges.

The short-term future is murky in Venezuela after such a massive change. But will further and more intense military intervention happen?

🇻🇪 Will Donald Trump invade Venezuela in 2026?

Latest prices via Polymarket as of Wednesday, Jan. 7; subject to change.

The additional context for this market is important immediately. Polymarket is viewing the capture and arrest of Maduro purely by those actions, and it's not considering that an invasion.

"This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control," Polymarket states. "President Trump’s statement that they will 'run' Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion."

More firm control through military intervention is therefore needed, as opposed to the informal and possibly short-term situation that's ongoing. There's currently a 24% chance of an invasion meeting that definition before the end of this year through Polymarket.

The outcome of the market is closely tied to the nation's future leadership and the structure of government now set to take shape. Trump said "we're not afraid of boots on the ground" shortly after Maduro's capture, via Reuters.

🌴 Who will lead Venezuela by the end of 2026?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Delcy Rodriguez, the Venezuelan vice president, became the acting president. She was at first critical of America's actions shortly after the arrest of Maduro, saying the nation would "never again be anyone's colony," via The Guardian.

But she promptly became more friendly after Trump's threats continued, with the president saying she would "pay a very big price, and probably bigger than Maduro" if Rodriguez doesn't do what he wants.

Meanwhile, Nobel Peace Prize Award winner Maria Corina Machado has long been the strongest opponent to Maduro. However, she didn't gain Trump's backing, with the commander-in-chief saying Machado "doesn't have the support or the respect within the country."

How this market plays out seems to rest mostly on who will cooperate with Trump, at least in the near term. And right now, that appears to be Rodriguez.

🗳️ When will Venezuela hold an election?

There's significant uncertainty tied to Venezuela right now, with Trump saying the U.S. will run the nation until a "safe, proper, and judicious transition."

Trump surely won't want it to develop into a long-term occupation, similar to the American presence in Afghanistan that ended poorly. But siding with the soonest possible election window in this market of Sept. 1, 2026 feels unwise due to the cloudy direction of the country and the need to reorganize.

That's surely why the longer-term date of June 1, 2027 is getting a 66% chance. Machado is ready for an election campaign when it happens, and she's returning to the country as soon as possible after leaving to get her Nobel Peace Prize.

"We believe that this transition should move forward,” she told Fox News, via Reuters. “In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes."

🚨 Why did Trump capture Maduro?

The foremost reason given for the capture and extraction of Maduro was the drug-trafficking and terrorism charges, which have been hanging over him in the United States since 2020.

But immediately afterward, Trump also wasn't shy about discussing another major element at play between the United States and Venezuela: oil.

He said that major American oil companies are set to move into Venezuela, a country with the world's largest oil reserves. The goal will be to restore the infrastructure and bring Venezuela back to its former oil-producing capacity.

Just days after bringing Maduro into custody, Trump said Venezuela has agreed to turn over up to 50 million barrels of oil, according to the BBC. That volume comes with a colossal value of about $2.8 billion.