Will Donald Trump Invade Greenland in 2026? | Prediction Market Odds for U.S. Military Action

Plenty are wondering where United States President Donald Trump will turn next after the capture and arrest of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and his discussion of Greenland that started as a passing notion seems to be increasing in seriousness fast.

Several prediction markets are offering percentages on whether he'll take action in Greenland, and what form the next step will take.

🇬🇱 Will Donald Trump invade Greenland?

Latest prices via Polymarket as of Wednesday, Jan. 7; subject to change.

This prediction market has been active just since Dec. 31, and it stipulates that "yes" resolves if the "United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by Dec. 31, 2026."

Support for "yes" peaked at 12% early before hitting a low of 6% and rebounding to around 11% on Wednesday, then dipping again on Thursday.

The reason for such low backing is the military intervention aspect amid talk of more peaceful options, though Trump certainly isn't ruling anything out.

"The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander-in-chief's disposal," the White House said in a statement yesterday, via Reuters.

However, there are other less aggressive routes to accomplish what seems to be a strategic goal for Trump.

💰 Will Donald Trump buy Greenland?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The percentages in this market have been rapidly increasing, peaking at a comparably sky-high 40.5% after being at 15% just over two weeks ago on Dec. 22.

This is the more likely avenue for American action in Greenland. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told lawmakers during a classified briefing that America doesn't plan to invade Greenland, and he instead mentioned purchasing the massive Arctic island from Denmark, according to the BBC.

There was also a statement from a state department spokesperson saying the U.S. is "eager to build lasting commercial relationships that benefit Americans and the people of Greenland."

The possibility of force will hover over the island though, even if a purchase is a far more likely path. That's especially true after Katie Miller, the wife of Trump's deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, shared this image.

🔐 Will Donald Trump take control of any area in Greenland?

This is a much longer term market, and it's been active for a while. It's taken a journey, with the original peak coming at 46.9% early last February. It then fell to 18.6% come mid June before lingering around 25% for much of the time since then prior to a sudden spike in early January. It's now climbed to 42%.

It's also a long-term market in another sense. It specifies that for "yes" to resolve, the United States needs to hold formal control over at least a part of Greenland before Trump's second and final term in office ends on Jan. 21, 2029.

Trump's recent aggression both in terms of his public statements and actions elsewhere have led to rapidly increasing action here.

💵 Why is Trump trying to buy Greenland?

Trump and his administration have repeatedly said that controlling Greenland is critical for national security interests due to its strategic location.

"President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, via Natasha Bertrand of CNN.

But there's been significant pushback from NATO and European allies, most notably Denmark, which has maintained control of the island as a semi-autonomous region since 1953. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said any attack from the United States would lead to the end of NATO.

"The U.S. has no right to annex any of the three nations in the Danish kingdom," she said, via the BBC.

Greenland's Prime Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen echoed that sentiment.

"No more pressure," he said. "No more insinuations. No more fantasies of annexation. We are open to dialogue. We are open to discussions. But this must happen through the proper channels and with respect for international law."