White Christmas in New York City Prediction Market: Will There Be Snow in NYC on Christmas Day?
For many, snow on Christmas Day is the only time it's truly desired, but the White Christmas in New York City prediction market shows that wish likely won't be fulfilled in The Big Apple this year.
Which is typical, though last year was a rare exception.
🗽 Will there be a White Christmas in New York City?
While a pleasant fluffy snowfall makes for a fairy-tale Christmas morning, the prediction market from Kalshi shows there's little chance of that happening in New York City this year.
The market at Kalshi specifically targets Christmas Day, meaning any snowfall from the days before still on the ground doesn't count. "If the total snowfall in New York City on Dec. 25 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes," Kalshi states, while using the National Weather Service as the official measure.
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🎄New York City Christmas Day forecast
| Day | 43 degrees with a 40% chance of light rain in the morning, and 12-mph winds gusting up to 18 mph; Feels like 37 degrees |
| Night | 25 degrees with a 30% chance of precipitation, and 11 mph winds gusting to 16 mph; Feels like 16 |
Sure, 43 degrees on Christmas Day may feel balmy for the northeast, but it's right in line with the historical temperature average for the jolliest day on the calendar. Though the mercury drops once the sun dives down, the temperature for much of the day is forecasted to be far too warm for snow in New York City, and the chance of precipitation at night is low too.
You may have an image in your mind of it snowing gently as awestruck onlookers peer at the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree (Kevin McCallister, perhaps). But that's more of a romantic holiday notion, as between 1912 and 2015 the city averaged a White Christmas once every six years, according to WNYC, or 18 times in total during that span.
The rarity did happen last year, when at least one inch of snow was recorded at Central Park. However, that ended a 15-year streak without a White Christmas, and it was just the fifth since 1983, according to Fox Weather.
The highest snowfall ever recorded in New York City on Christmas Day was seven inches way back in 1909.
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