White Christmas in Chicago Prediction Market: Will There Be Snow in Chicago on Christmas Day?

The Windy City will live up to that moniker during the peak of the holiday season. But much like other major cities in the northeast, the White Christmas in Chicago prediction market shows little chance of a snow globe on Christmas Day.

The day will be blustery with something wet likely falling from the sky. It just won't be white.

🌧️ Will there be a White Christmas in Chicago?

This market from Kalshi showed a much greater possibility of a White Christmas in Chicago earlier in the month, peaking at a 64% chance on Dec. 14. But that percentage has been plummeting since, largely due to forecasted unseasonable warmth.

The market at Kalshi specifically targets Christmas Day, meaning any snowfall from the days before still on the ground doesn't count. "If the total snowfall in Chicago on Dec. 25 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes," Kalshi states, while using the National Weather Service as the official measure.

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🎄Chicago Christmas Day forecast

A trend we saw in the White Christmas in Boston prediction market and the White Christmas in New York prediction market continues. For either all or much of the day in the northeast, the temperature is above historical averages for the day.

That's especially true in Chicago, where the mercury is 3 degrees higher than average for the city on Christmas Day during the daytime. And oddly, the real spike comes during the back half of the day, as the nighttime temperature soars 14 degrees above the average.

There will be ideal conditions for a blissful Christmas evening walk in Chicago then, as long as the turkey-induced tryptophan hasn't set in too heavily. Or at least as pristine as an early-winter evening gets in Chicago, as there's a high chance of light rain alongside up to 24-mph winds. Strap on the rain gear for that lakeside stroll.

So Christmas Day is likely to be wet, but the chance of snow in Chicago is nearly non-existent due to the warmth. It's part of a warm-weather trend throughout the week, with the forecasted 45-degree temperature on Christmas Eve sitting 9 degrees higher than the average, and the 46 degrees on Friday anticipated to be 12 degrees above norms.

Chicago is off to its snowiest start to winter in 47 years, according to NBC 5 Chicago. That snow dumping might continue, but it'll very likely take a few days off for Santa's arrival.