White Christmas in Boston Prediction Market: Will There Be Snow in Boston on Christmas Day?

A temperature plunge is set for Beantown, but it might come a little too late to really sway the White Christmas in Boston prediction market.

The city experienced a White Christmas last year for the first time in 15 years, with three inches of snow falling.

❄️ Will there be a White Christmas in Boston?

The chances of snow falling on Christmas Day in Boston sat as high as 56.6% on Dec. 16 through Kalshi. That likelihood has since been cut in half, surely due to the high possibility of a storm coming through that seems set to miss the city on Christmas Day, but hit the following evening.

The market at Kalshi specifically targets Christmas Day, meaning any snowfall from the days before still on the ground doesn't count. "If the total snowfall in Boston on Dec. 25 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes," Kalshi states, while using the National Weather Service as the official measure.

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🎄Boston Christmas Day forecast

There's a far better chance of the fluffy fun falling in Boston than what we're seeing in the White Christmas in New York prediction market. But the chances are still relatively low while resting around 25%.

That's mostly because those hoping for a White Christmas in Boston will likely need to enjoy it during a post-dinner walk, if at all. Temperatures take a sharp dive at night ahead of a much cooler day on Friday. It'll reach the point where Bostonians will want to wear thermal everything, with the wind-chill effect bringing the temperature down to a teeth-chattering -2.

If a system blows through then, it'll surely bring snow. But the more probable scenario is snow the following afternoon and into the evening, when there's an 80% chance of up to two inches.

Much like New York, Boston historically doesn't get a White Christmas often despite its cold-weather climate during the winter months. Last year's snowy Christmas was the first since 2009, and just the second since 2000, according to CBS News. The city also held a 19% White Christmas rate between 1991 and 2020, per The Weather Channel.