Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today: National Bank Open Final Expert Picks

Victoria Mboko has defied all odds to make her first WTA 1000 final, but can she leap over one final hurdle against Naomi Osaka in today's National Bank Open Final?

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: August 7, 2025 1:17 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Today's National Bank Open Final Expert Picks — Pictured: Victoria Mboko reacts after a play as we make our best Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka prediction. Photo by David Kirouac via Imagn Images.

Victoria Mboko's semifinal victory was a shining example of why we tune in even when we think we know what the result will be. Showing all the hallmarks of a champion while defying the odds to topple world No. 12 Elena Ryabinka, her reward is a tilt with Naomi Osaka. My Mboko vs. Osaka prediction digs into whether she can keep the run going in today's National Bank Open final.

Mboko is the clear betting underdog across our best sports betting sites in Canada, a fact that's not shocking given Osaka is a four-time major winner.

Today's final takes place in Montreal, with the first serve expected at 6 p.m. ET (Sportsnet, ESPN+).

🎾 Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka prediction & best bet today

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✅ 1st set pick: Over 9.5 games (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Osaka Over 12.5 games (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka odds today: National Bank Open

Latest National Bank Open odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Victoria Mboko	+145	40.82%
Naomi Osaka	-170	62.96%

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🏆 Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka expert picks

Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: National Bank Open Final Expert Picks — Pictured: Naomi Osaka returns the ball in the semifinals as we offer Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction. Photo by David Kirouac via Imagn Images.

✅ 1st set Over 9.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.52)
🔢 Implied probability: 51.22%

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While I expect Osaka to win her third WTA 1000 event, the juice isn't worth the squeeze at our best sports betting apps. Instead, I've turned to a first-set prop, expecting the opener to be tightly contested.

There's always a chance nerves will get the best of the first-time finalist.

However, after seeing Mboko rip through three seeds en route to the final, including top seed Coco Gauff in straight sets, I'm convinced that fearlessness and her nothing-to-lose attitude will prevail in that specific internal battle.

Despite Mboko's grueling two-hour, 46-minute marathon against Elena Rybakina in the semifinals, fatigue will not be a factor, particularly early. She's only 18 years old and should be galvanized by the feverish partisan Canadian crowd.

Additionally, if Mboko wasn't overawed against two major winners in Rybakina and Gauff, I can't see her succumbing to pressure in the final.

💰 Best Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka prop bet

✅ Osaka Over 12.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -120 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.33)
🔢 Implied probability: 54.44%

It was a matter of when, not if, for Osaka to return to her vintage best. While it's taken the better part of 19 months, she has put together a two-week period which should culminate with another tour victory.

She has beaten four seeds and dropped only one set en route to today's final. It shouldn't be a cakewalk, though. Osaka and Mboko haven't faced each other, with the latter spending most of the year playing in second-tier tournaments to build her ranking.

Mboko began the year ranked outside the top 300. Regardless of the result today, she'll be ranked no lower than 35th in the world. That incredible feat offers a snapshot of how well Mboko has played since the start of 2025.

More to the point, how well she's played in Montreal in front of a frenzied home crowd.

Mboko's wrist is the one thing that concerns me about this pick, as the Canadian must either win a set or take Osaka to at least one tiebreak. If her wrist doesn't hold up, Osaka will likely win in 12 or fewer games.

While adrenaline may have carried Mboko through the remainder of the third set after her fall in the semis, I'm expecting the teenage whippersnapper to recover quickly while riding another adrenaline-fueled emotional high to keep things tight throughout.

Of our best sports betting apps in Canada, BetMGM offers the longest odds.

📺 How to watch Victoria Mboko vs. Naomi Osaka: National Bank Open

📍 Date: Thursday, Aug. 7
🕘 Time: 6 p.m. ET
🏟️ Location: IGA Stadium (Montreal, Quebec)
📡 How to watch: Sportsnet, ESPN+, WTA TV

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.